I just got done listening to the first 9 performances in the video section, and rearranged my thoughts in performance order:
Claire Huangci: Had many moments I thought, "well done, that was just right", but very deliberate and I never really got emotionally involved.
Scipione Sangiovanni: Honestly, it felt a little dull. I can't say it was bad, it just felt like background music.
Beatrice Rana: Am I biased in favor of Italian playing? Some of them play with such wonderful heart, they make me want to shout 'Viva l'Italia!' She may not be the technical firecracker some of the other players are, but I really enjoyed her playing. She gave humanity to music I don't always see as particularly special. For me, that trumps technical fireworks. Phase 2: Oh, Beatrice, my darling, it's not that your technics were below the others, it's that you make everything sound so damn easy! Gaspard cemented that point, although Scarbo may have given you a bit more than an understated technique can handle. Still one of my favs, though.
Steven Lin: A deliberate player, but not to bad effect. I felt like his precision was overall more musically coherent than Ms. Huanhci. I also thought he made interesting and really smart piece selections. Very solid and competition-friendly. He might go far. Phase 2: Ditto phase 1. He's not the best player to bring out Haydn, but he's got fire and is an exciting player.
Marcin Koziak: Hmm...I have some strong feelings for the Chopin Scherzo No. 2, to the extent that it made me angry to hear without the passion I feel is required to do it justice. The Szymanowski Mazurkas I'd never heard before, and they were interesting, but I didn't find anything about this pianist that made me want to hear more.
Alex McDonald: Played up a storm, but never grabbed me. Some might find him exciting, though.
Nikita Mndoyants: WAY too calculated and mild-mannered for late period Beethoven, IMO. I want to hear the mysterious insanity of Beethoven at work in No. 32. It's definitely not the piece I would have chosen for him. There's a certain solidness to his playing which some may like. It's not my thing, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get far in a competition.
Luca Buratto: His Haydn didn't capture the spirit of Haydn to me. His Schumann was more successful, but I think there is much more that can be done with this piece (not that's it's easy to do, but hey, this is the Van Cliburn).
Giuseppe Greco: His playing made me slime immensely. Joy, spirit, and an ease that made me forget about the technical stuff, and concentrate on the music. It wasn't perfect, but it was enjoyable, which is better than perfect. I'd love to see him progress, but I've been jaded enough by competition judging to worry he won't. Phase 2: Yep, there's that smile again (or slime, if you preferred my typo), along with some dangerously watery eyes this time. Damn, do I love the sound he gets out of a piano. From the second he starts playing, the sublime tone is evident. Rising up the charts to #1, with a bullet.
So, thus far, I'd say Steven Lin is a shoe-in for the semis, ultimately I think the judges will respond to Giuseppe Greco (my personal favorite), and Beatrice Rana would be the dark horse I would advocate for.
Edit: 9 more-
Oleksandr Poliykov: Hate to say it, but didn't sound like he belonged at this level. Mistakes, hesitations, inaccuracies, and it doesn't sound like he has total mastery over the pieces. In other words, he sounds too much like me. :-)
Kuan-Ting Lin: He's good. He inspired appreciation more than adoration, but he's good.
Nikita Abrosimov: Beautiful, elegant playing. Not my very favorite, but he's on my short list. Phase 2: Still a really strong player, still struggling to come up with something extraordinary about him.
Tomoki Sakata: A solid, if not inspired, Beethoven. Solid, if not inspired, Liszt. Solid, if not inspired, Scriabin. I don't mean to belittle the technical accomplishments of players like this, as they are pretty darn impressive, but there's just something missing to me.
Lindsay Garriston: She was good, but not top-teir to me. Maybe I'm picky about my Prokofiev, but that 7th Sonata needs more angst.
Vadym Kholodenko: China Gates...interesting. I've performed that myself, but I haven't heart it in competition repertoire before. He strikes the right mood, and it's a nice prelude piece. At first his Rach Sonata wasn't impressing me, but thankfully I listened to the whole thing, because it wound up having a wonderful emotional arc. I still don't think he brought out the full potential of this one, but few do. I'd like to hear more from this guy. Phase 2: Well, I heard more, and had the same experience. At first: eh. Then: Oh, this is actually pretty nice. Another good Petrouchka, but not up to Jie Yuan's.
Alessandro Traverna: Another winner form Italy! Wonderful Beethoven and Stravinsky. One of my favorites. Phase 2: Since last visiting Mr. Traverna, I've had second thoughts about how highly I've placed him. Still good, but I think he's outshined by several others. Also, here's another guy with undercharged Ligeti...what part of 'fffffff' did you not understand!?
Nikolay Khozyainov: Not sure if he had the best choice of repertoire. Very virtuoso-minded, but in this sea of virtuosity, he doesn't stand out, so that leaves little else to recommend him. Again, it would be a joke to call him bad, just not stand-out to me.
Alessandro Deljavan: Uh oh, he whipped out Op. 25! I think I liked his facial expressions more than his playing. He didn't give me anything special or add anything new to these oft-played pieces.
Traverna was tops in this group. Also want to hear more from Kholodenko and Abrosimov. This group also had two chops-heavy Asians (Taiwanese and Japanese) who could be contenders.
Edit: finishing Phase 1 off:
Jayson Gillham: A very soulful and human-sounding Bach. I'm not sure about his Ligeti interpretation, but making these pieces sound so musical, consonant, and effortless is pretty amazing. His Chopin was also wonderfully effortless, but somehow not Chopin-y to my ears. Could be one to watch, though. Phase 2: Again, almost absurdly effortless at the keyboard, but this is the Waldstein! Give it something! Still, it's almost magical the way he floats over the keys.
Eric Zuber: I noticed a couple of hiccups, but much worse, a disturbing lack of passion. Almost like it was his job to be there, not his desire.
Alexey Chernov: Not sure how I feel about him. There were times where I felt like I lost the line, and I'm not sure if it was a weakness or an intentional phrasing thing. I don't think he'll be one of the semis.
Yekwon Sunwoo: 'Pleasant' was the word that kept coming to mind, and I don't mean that in a limiting way. His Beethoven and Schubert were lovely, light and musical, if lacking the a sense of "fantasy" called to mind their respective titles. I feel he needs another layer to his playing, but overall strong. Phase 2: Still pleasant, and showing quite good technique, but I'm starting to feel like I ranked him too high.
Sean Chen: I found his Bach uninspired and mediocre. Bartok Etudes decent, but I've certainly heard better. Given that, I was all ready to hate his Chopin Mazurkas, but they weren't bad (but still not great). Scriban not bad, but could have done more. Overall not a contender in my book. Phase 2: Throwin' the Hammer(klavier) down! Unfortunately, in a competition where everyone is amazing and playing ridiculously hard pieces, a 'pretty good' Hammerklavier with clear mistakes, hesitations, and technical insecurities will not win it for you. He loosened up by the time he hit the fugue, but overall not a free enough performance to have a chance at top billing.
Fei-Fei Dong: At first I wasn't impressed, but she grew on me. I enjoyed her Chopin Rondo very much. By the end, I was hoping to see her through to them semis. Phase 2: More lovely and involved playing from Fei-Fei. She's becoming one of my favorites.
Sara Daneshpour: Undercharged Chopin Scherzo and Rach Etudes. Again, technique goes without saying here, but not compelling to me at all.
Jie Yuan: At first I was going to say "He's not my kind of player, but I recognize there's something there." But then his Haydn won me over, and his Stravinsky...he hit it out of the park! The first time thus far I've gone back to listen to a performance over again. My gut tells me we'll be seeing much more of him in this competition. Phase 2(post-non-choosing): It's very interesting to compare his Chopin Preludes to the other competitor who played them in Phase 1(Huang). Very different styles, and I feel like 9 out of 10 people who might call themselves a 'musical authority' would prefer Huang. But I disagree. This is more how I like to hear them, and more how I play them myself. Part of me also knows that my preference is not one that wins piano competitions. Yuan plays heavy-handed in a way I suppose is not looked upon favorably in this setting. I find his playing highly compelling and extremely listenable, though. (Side note: Yuan is officially the first person to play a piece I'm working on with one of my students (Musicia Ricercata). He did them well, but was this the best choice? They're too easy IMO. A Ligeti etude would have been better.)
Gustavo Miranda-Bernales: I like the way he removed every ounce of cheap flash from the Schubert and went for depth and musicality. The kind of player who makes you a better player for listening to him (IOW, he makes me feel like a pretentious ass for playing shallow and flashy somethines). Definitely want to hear more.
Francois Dumont: Good Gaspard. Good Chopin Scherzo. In another competition, he'd be a surefire contender, but here I'm struggling to find what's special about him that I can put him in my top 12.
Ruoyu Huang: First one to break out the Chopin Preludes (others have it scheduled for Phase 2). Many of them were quite good. Not sure how I feel about him...the turnoff is that he feels very 'trained' to me; well-trained, but textbook nonetheless.
Yury Favorin: Nice Schubert Sonata. Good chops, but doesn't make things sound easy like some other competitors. Interesting modern piece by Boucourechliev, and well played. I would mind seeing him in the semis, but will there be a spot left for him?
So...I will try to get a much Phase 2 listening done before semi-finalists are announced, but right now this is my final twelve, in somewhat order of preference:
Giuseppe Greco
Jie Yuan
Beatrice Rana
Fei-Fei Dong
Jayson Gillham
Gustavo Miranda-Bernales
Vadym Kholodenko
Steven Lin
Yekwan Sunwoo
Alessandro Traverna
Nikita Abrosimiv
Yury Favorin
Edit: We have our final 12! Let's see how I (and they) did. -
(In no particular order)
Claire Huangci - Not surprised, even though I felt she was too calculated
Beatrice Rana - Excellent
Nikita Mndoyants - "It's not my thing, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get far in a competition." I guess that counts as calling it?
Vadym Kholodenko - Look forward to hearing more
Tomoki Sakata - Dull to me, but understand
Nikita Abrosimov - 3 for 6 so far
Nikolay Khozyainov - Another 'good but dull' one for me
Allesandro Deljavan - Meh
Jason Gillham - Not remotely surprised
Alexy Chernov - Want to win the Van Cliburn? Study in Russia
Sean Chen - Really? His Hammerklavier was not anything amazing to me, and there were clear mistakes in the 1st movement
Fei-Fei Dong - At least we end the list on a positive note. She sees to have captured many hearts besides my own. I predict a good career for her.
1st thought: NO GIUSEPPE GRECO!? That's shocking to me. I'm going to remember his name for a long time. 2nd thought: Panel, did you go on break during Jie Yuan's performance? He was friggin' amazing! (unless he screwed up his yet-unseen Phase 2) 3rd though: 5 of 12. Thought I would do a bit better. At least my 3, 4, and 5 got through. 4th thought: I need to study in Russia