Any Day Traders here?

[pianolearner]

Care to discuss what you trade (Stocks, indices, etc) and your trading system?

I trade the S&P 500 index. I actually spread bet but in principle it is the same as futures/day trading.

[pianolearner]

The futures market is indicating a lower opening for the S&P500. There are no major economic releases today

https://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200546.html

so I think the market will pare some of the loss and end up being a split opening.

But I also think there will be some profit taking from last weeks rally so the market is likely to close lower. The important one to watch will be tomorrow's PPI and Retail Sales.


N.B: I am NOT a professional. Markets can go down as well as up. Dont drink & drive.

[Dazzer]

I'd like to know more about investing/trading/speculating?

now of course i'm not looiking for a get rich quick method, but i'm interested in how you got started, where do you learn how to do it, and what qualifications do you have?

[pianolearner]

I'd like to know more about investing/trading/speculating?

now of course i'm not looiking for a get rich quick method, but i'm interested in how you got started, where do you learn how to do it, and what qualifications do you have?

Hi Dazzer,

I don't have ANY formal qualifications.  I have learnt everything from reading books and experience. I have been actively investing in the Stock market for over 10 years and in that time I have made and lost money.

I am new to day trading and don't consider it investing, it's a form of "intelligent" gambling-- I like gambling. Investing is something I do very carefully and have a long term investment horizon. Day Trading is something I am doing with money I can afford to lose. Before I give you any advice, you must tell me:

1) Your Risk Profile-- ie/ Are you risk averse?
2) Your Time Horizon
3) Do you have spare money to invest/Lose

[pianolearner]

It's looking more and more like a split opening.

How to trade a Split Opening.

Trading characteristics associated with SPLIT OPENINGS:

1. Identify the direction the market breaks from the split.
2. The market will then travel to the nearest level of support/resistance.
3. The market will then reverse and
4. Proceed through the opening to the opposing level of resistance/support.

I find split gaps tricky. Especially when there are no economic releases. There have been some positive earnings reports which may influence the overall direction of the market. But since the S&P 500 has already rallied, analysts think the positive news has already been taken into account.

[pianolearner]

I've opened my trade.

I opened a sell order on the S&P500-- £10 point at 1234.15

This means I will make £10 for every point I close below 1234.15

I have a stop at 1237.45 which means I will lose 1237.45-1234.15= 3.3 x £10 =£33

Let's see if I made the right trade....!

https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d

[Dazzer]

i'm lost.



risk averse... yes i guess i am a little afraid of huge risks. But i'm trying to overcome this. note i'm only 19:) i've just started getting interested in making money the ' non-working' way. I guess Robby kiyosaki is highly inspirational. i suddenly feel "getting out of the rat race" is a goal i should aim for. So now i need to know how to go about acheiving this.

Of course, playing with stocks isn't really the most reliable way to get a steady secure passive income (which is probably the name of the game)

So yes now i'm playing with my life savings. a couple of grand. I'm looking at venturing into some multi-level marketing, which my friend jumped in without telling me, and he's doing okay, i think, at least to him. What's your opinion on MLM? or network marketing anyway.

So now i think the short term goal is to amass enough funds to start investing in bigger things, for bigger returns.

[BoliverAllmon]

the first rule of day trading is this.

get 10 grand
go outside
burn it and smile.


until you can do that you are not ready for day trading.

day trading can make 20,000 today and lose 15,000 tomorrow. you have to learn to role with the punches. that being said, people can make some serious money day trading. once you get a cushion you learn to trade with other people's money. My dad looked into it at one point.

boliver

[pianolearner]

i'm lost.



risk averse... yes i guess i am a little afraid of huge risks. But i'm trying to overcome this. note i'm only 19:) i've just started getting interested in making money the ' non-working' way. I guess Robby kiyosaki is highly inspirational. i suddenly feel "getting out of the rat race" is a goal i should aim for. So now i need to know how to go about acheiving this.

Of course, playing with stocks isn't really the most reliable way to get a steady secure passive income (which is probably the name of the game)

So yes now i'm playing with my life savings. a couple of grand. I'm looking at venturing into some multi-level marketing, which my friend jumped in without telling me, and he's doing okay, i think, at least to him. What's your opinion on MLM? or network marketing anyway.

So now i think the short term goal is to amass enough funds to start investing in bigger things, for bigger returns.

Dazzer,

Boliver is absolutely right with what he says about Day Trading. You remind me of what I was like at 19. I looked at investing in the Stock market and asked someone I worked with for advice. He made it sound very complicated, then about 3 months later the October 1987 crash happened and that put me off the market altogether. I tried various other ways of making money and they all failed. I did look at MLM (Amway) but that isn't for me. It wasn't until I was 27 that I seriously started reading, learning and investing in the Stock market. It isn't anywhere near as complicated as I first thought. Had I invested after the October crash I'd be a very wealthy man now. Provided you do the proper research, the stock market *IS* a reliable way to get a steady secure passive income. But I get the impression you want to be a millionaire before the age of 30, just like I did

If you really want to learn about the risk and reward of day trading this is a *very good* site.

https://www.online-futurestrading.com/

I have experienced many things the articles talk about and can vouch for their accuracy. I strongly advise that you read them all. Especially the *Pivot Point Calculator*!! Trying to day trade without it is like trying to learn playing the Piano without knowing where Middle C is.

[BoliverAllmon]

the only way I invest right now is in my 403b and some mutual fund accounts. Statistics show that if I put away 100 dollars a month for 40 years I will have several million dollars by the time I retire. So, I put away roughtly 140 bucks a month. HEHEHEHE.....

I feel you have to also set priorities. The first thing I would do is set up a retirement account of any kind, then get out of debt. I heard a guy once say that he could guarantee a 20% return on our money. I perked my ears and was curios. His way was simply paying off your credit cards. Interest kills you. After you are out of debt, set up an emergency fund. Get roughly 3 months worth of funds. Once you do this then you can start investing. That way if you loose any money it doesn't hurt.

well, that is the conservative way to invest. Of course there are more aggressive ways of doing it. Discipline and patience are key to investing.

[pianolearner]

the only way I invest right now is in my 403b and some mutual fund accounts. Statistics show that if I put away 100 dollars a month for 40 years I will have several million dollars by the time I retire. So, I put away roughtly 140 bucks a month. HEHEHEHE.....

You need to be leery about statistics like this. Due to inflation, in 40 years time several million dollars may only have the same purchasing power as several hundred thousand dollars has today. This would be enough to have a comfortable retirement, you won't be rich. Look at how much wages and the price of a house have changed over the last 40 years.

[BoliverAllmon]

true, but retirement accounts give out a higher percentage of return than inflation, so I agree that I could retire, how much is still yet to be determined.

[Stolzing]

Also as inflation goes up, he'll be able to afford more than $140 a month.

[pianolearner]

Also as inflation goes up, he'll be able to afford more than $140 a month.

We are now completely off topic. But, if you go to these sites:

https://www.quicken.com/banking_and_credit/savings_calc/

https://www.bankrate.com/brm/calc/401k.asp

You will get an idea of what it takes to save several million dollars in 40 years. They don't have an option for inflation so the annualised rate must be what you expect to earn NET of inflation. Even at 8% which is EXCEPTIONALLY GOOD, $150/month only yields a little over ½ million dollars over 40 years. (Quicken calculator)

Average inflation since 1914 is 3.49%, so we can use this as a very rough guide for the future cost of a basket of goods. In 40 years time you will need $4031 to buy the same basket of goods that cost $1000 today.

I'm not sure what the average wage is in the US, but I would guess that a retired person without a mortgage could live comfortably on about $2000/month. The current yield on US bonds is 4.6% and I doubt that any other investment would be able to do better. So, to earn $2000/month @ 4.6% you would need $521739 in TODAY'S money. In 40 years you will need $2,103,129. That means you will need to be saving almost $600/month (at 8%) now.

[Dazzer]

hahaha no not really... i don't care about being a millionaire. I'm going by kiyosaki's definition. By his definition I want to be wealthy, not rich.

A rich person is someone who has alot of money, true. But wealth is measured by the time a person is able to survive when he stops working (loses job, quits etc). Once that number is in the negative (Assets > Liabilities) a person is wealthy.

So it doesn't matter how rich you are, if you lose your job, and suddenly you're struggling to survive.

Of course, being a millionaire allows me to buy that nice steinway... or 2. maybe a bosendorfer next to it... in a warehouse.

[pianolearner]

hahaha no not really... i don't care about being a millionaire. I'm going by kiyosaki's definition. By his definition I want to be wealthy, not rich.

A rich person is someone who has alot of money, true. But wealth is measured by the time a person is able to survive when he stops working (loses job, quits etc). Once that number is in the negative (Assets > Liabilities) a person is wealthy.

So it doesn't matter how rich you are, if you lose your job, and suddenly you're struggling to survive.

Of course, being a millionaire allows me to buy that nice steinway... or 2. maybe a bosendorfer next to it... in a warehouse.

Dazzer,

You seem to have the right idea.  Having a goal is important if you want to succeed. Next thing is coming up with a realistic plan so you can achieve it.

[rlefebvr]

You want to invest. Don't burn bridges your not ready for.

Buy bonds.
Buy mutual funds.
Buy real estate.


Once you have those and have 50 000 capital, start looking into the stock market or managing your own mutual fund portfolio.

The stock market played well can get you 15 to 20 percent on your money.  You should have at least 25 000 to play with. (and I do mean "play" with)

You also need at least an hour a day. Best is if you can buy and sell day in and out.

This works for rich students or anyone with a job that has access to a computer and a lot of free time.

Best thing to start out is find one of those stock games on the internet. You get to play with fake money, you learn how it works and you see if you have the perseverance to do it on a constant basis.

[pianolearner]

You want to invest. Don't burn bridges your not ready for.

Buy bonds.
Buy mutual funds.
Buy real estate.


Once you have those and have 50 000 capital, start looking into the stock market or managing your own mutual fund portfolio.

The stock market played well can get you 15 to 20 percent on your money.  You should have at least 25 000 to play with. (and I do mean "play" with)

You also need at least an hour a day. Best is if you can buy and sell day in and out.

This works for rich students or anyone with a job that has access to a computer and a lot of free time.

Best thing to start out is find one of those stock games on the internet. You get to play with fake money, you learn how it works and you see if you have the perseverance to do it on a constant basis.

Hi rlefebvr,

Is this advice aimed at me? I agree with some points but investing in the stock market does NOT require the huge amounts you are talking about. Not even for day trading. But I agree that nobody should invest amounts they can't afford to lose.

[rlefebvr]

Hi rlefebvr,

Is this advice aimed at me? I agree with some points but investing in the stock market does NOT require the huge amounts you are talking about. Not even for day trading. But I agree that nobody should invest amounts they can't afford to lose.

Not aimed at you personnaly. More of a general comment.

Sure you can invest with less, the point is there are better ways of investing when you have little capital, unless your interest in playing the stock market is strong, then it's another matter completely.
 

[pianolearner]

Not aimed at you personnaly. More of a general comment.

Sure you can invest with less, the point is there are better ways of investing when you have little capital, unless your interest in playing the stock market is strong, then it's another matter completely.
 

Unfortunatley this is what I was told when I was 19 and I wish I had ignored it. I called up a stockbroker and he almost laughed at me when I told him I wanted to invest $500-

[BoliverAllmon]

that's why I like Edward Jones you can start investing with 1 dollar with them.

[rlefebvr]

Question remains to what point. I don't want to beat this with a stick, but why not invest in a mutual fund instead. It's still the stock market and the return can be better or just as good.

I would like to note that the stock market should be a required course in High School. There is much to learn and it would be a very easy course to setup.

This is the type of things you should learn in High School.

[BoliverAllmon]

that is how i do it, just mutual funds. That way people smarter than I with more information can make decisions.

[pianolearner]

that is how i do it, just mutual funds. That way people smarter than I with more information can make decisions.

Boliver,

Any "idiot" can outperform the "smarter" people managing mutual funds simply by buying sharers in the largest companies that are in a major index-- S&P 500, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, FTSE100, 250, 350. Take your pick. Very few mutual funds outperform these indexes in the long term, they track them +/- 1%. Just like you could with your own portfolio. Picking the right fund is like picking the right stocks.

[BoliverAllmon]

largest company like enron and worldcom? LOL J/K

so enlighten this idiot (don't worry no offense was taken) in how you buy stocks.

[pianolearner]

largest company like enron and worldcom? LOL J/K

so enlighten this idiot (don't worry no offense was taken) in how you buy stocks.

I wasn't calling you and idiot 

Follow this system which has been proven by BEN GRAHAM and I will almost guarantee you will outperform any fund manager. But as always, do your OWN research.

A stock must pass 1 VALUE & 1 SAFETY criteria.

-------------------
VALUE

1) Earnings Yield [Inverse of PE Ratio] minimum = 2 x High Quality Bond yield
2) Current PE Ratio must be less than 40% of highest PE Ratio of last 5 years
3) Current Dividend Yield must be at least 2/3 x High Quality Bond yield
4) Current Market Cap must be less than 2/3 x Tangible Book Value
5) Current Market Cap must be less than 2/3 x Net Current Assets

-------------------
SAFETY

1) Total Debt must not exceed Book Value
2) Current Assets must be at least 2 x Current Liabilities
3) Total Debt must be less than 2 x Net Current Assets
4) Earnings Growth for 10 years = 7%pa Compound [i.e/ approx doubled over 10 years]
(Must take inflation into account)
5) Earnings must be stable over last 10 years [Less than 2 times when earnings fell by 5%]

-------------------
EXTRA (My own person criteria)

1) Must have Stable Dividend payments for last 5 years
2) Dividend increase each year for the last 5 years

[BoliverAllmon]

Oh I know you weren't calling me an idiot. I was HEHEHEHE

[BoliverAllmon]

I wasn't calling you and idiot 

Follow this system which has been proven by BEN GRAHAM and I will almost guarantee you will outperform any fund manager. But as always, do your OWN research.

A stock must pass 1 VALUE & 1 SAFETY criteria.

-------------------
VALUE

1) Earnings Yield [Inverse of PE Ratio] minimum = 2 x High Quality Bond yield
2) Current PE Ratio must be less than 40% of highest PE Ratio of last 5 years
3) Current Dividend Yield must be at least 2/3 x High Quality Bond yield
4) Current Market Cap must be less than 2/3 x Tangible Book Value
5) Current Market Cap must be less than 2/3 x Net Current Assets

-------------------
SAFETY

1) Total Debt must not exceed Book Value
2) Current Assets must be at least 2 x Current Liabilities
3) Total Debt must be less than 2 x Net Current Assets
4) Earnings Growth for 10 years = 7%pa Compound [i.e/ approx doubled over 10 years]
(Must take inflation into account)
5) Earnings must be stable over last 10 years [Less than 2 times when earnings fell by 5%]

-------------------
EXTRA (My own person criteria)

1) Must have Stable Dividend payments for last 5 years
2) Dividend increase each year for the last 5 years

I have actually been diving into books about warren buffet, ben graham, and fisher. it is some very interesting stuff. do you know of a website where you can talk to other people that are into investing. somewhat of a pianostreet for investors?

boliver

[pianolearner]

I have actually been diving into books about warren buffet, ben graham, and fisher. it is some very interesting stuff. do you know of a website where you can talk to other people that are into investing. somewhat of a pianostreet for investors?

boliver

Yes. Here is one I use but be warned, some people there can be ruthless. Don't expect to be given any get rich quick schemes.

https://www.trade2win.com/

[BoliverAllmon]

not looking for get rich quick schemes. I am just tired of going to different yahoo groups or chat rooms looking for people to talk to and all I get is people advertising get rich quick schemes.

[prometheus]

I think normal people do not have a fair chance on the stock market. The people that can make and do make big money are banks and other financial institutions. Why? Because they have people with connections. They have networks.

I don't think you have a fair chance on the stock market without foreknowledge. Those people have foreknowledge and they make a lot of money. Normal people have to pay for this.

[pianolearner]

I think normal people do not have a fair chance on the stock market. The people that can make and do make big money are banks and other financial institutions. Why? Because they have people with connections. They have networks.

I don't think you have a fair chance on the stock market without foreknowledge. Those people have foreknowledge and they make a lot of money. Normal people have to pay for this.

It is this fallacy that stops the average person from investing in the stock market.

[prometheus]

Which fallacy?

I am not saying one cannot make money on the stock market. I am just saying they don't have a fair chance.

[BoliverAllmon]

average people are just financially illiterate. If more people would go to the library and read about what they are wanting to do, then they could make just as much money. I don't have a degree or even went to any kind of seminar, but I am currenlty making 20% returns on my investments. that isn't bad at all.

[pianolearner]

Which fallacy?

I am not saying one cannot make money on the stock market. I am just saying they don't have a fair chance.

Which fallacy? Everything you wrote about what you think, this included. What do you mean by "fair chance"?

[prometheus]

Trading stock with foreknowledge is considered illegal. But at the same time everybody knows you cannot really prove when someone trades with foreknowledge.

Those few people that have very good networking will know what is happening in the business world. They will always be a step ahead of those that are not in this network. And I am not talking about financially illeterate people.

Ok, it seems this is called 'Insider trading' in english. The people that work for the major financial institutions surely have access to non-public knowledge. They are supposed not to act on it. But to do this is their job. And the amount of money involved is enormous. Surely someone isn't going to sit and not do his job realising he is either loosing millions of money or realising he is missing the opportunity to win millions of money.
They also know that when they do make this illegal transaction it can never be proven they had insiders knowledge.

Do you know what a fallacy is? By definition 'everything' cannot be a fallacy. A fallacy is a very concrete flaw of logic which is often easy to point out.

[BoliverAllmon]

inside trading is easy to detect. If a company goes south and the president of the company dumped all of his stocks a month before, then yeah red flag everyone!!!! You don't have to have networks, you just have to learn to read. read value line, Barrons, Invester's Business Daily, WSJ, and other sources. All the information is out there. the SEC sees to that. You just have to look for it and not follow the lemming society out there.

boliver

[prometheus]

I know that the rules in the US are different than in Europe so are there many cases of people that get caught?

Don't you think your example is a bit unfair? What if the president tells it to someone, who tells it to someone else, who tells it to someone else, and that person trades with foreknowledge? It can never been proven.

I know cases from Europe where it was clear someone traded with foreknowledge but it was just impossible to prove it. And those people have been pretty reckless. I am sure those cases are the top of the iceberg.

[BoliverAllmon]

enron and worldcom come to mind immediately.

[prometheus]

Insiders trade? Are you sure? Who has been found guilty?


As far as I know one Enron guy was found guilty on obstructing justice by shredding documents. That one Enron person pleaded guilty on insiders trade, not sure if he was found guilty.  And one Worldcom guy was found guilty on accounting fraud, conspiracy and filing false documents.

[BoliverAllmon]

people are still on trial for the Enron scandal.

[pianolearner]

I know that the rules in the US are different than in Europe so are there many cases of people that get caught?

Don't you think your example is a bit unfair? What if the president tells it to someone, who tells it to someone else, who tells it to someone else, and that person trades with foreknowledge? It can never been proven.

I know cases from Europe where it was clear someone traded with foreknowledge but it was just impossible to prove it. And those people have been pretty reckless. I am sure those cases are the top of the iceberg.

Insider Trading was all I could think of when you posted about "foreknowledge". I suppose you are right, anyone who engages in an illegal activity stands to make more money than a "normal" person operating within the law, as long as they are never caught. It isn't really worth arguing about. Drug dealing, embezzlement, tax evasion, money laundering are just a few other illegal activities in which someone can make plenty of money, and may get to enjoy it if they are never caught.

“Proving that someone has been responsible for a trade can be difficult, because traders may try to hide behind nominees, offshore companies, and other proxies. Nevertheless, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission prosecutes over 50 cases each year, with many being settled administratively out of court.”

https://www.sec.gov/answers/insider.htm


By the way, I think you should get all your money together and buy as many shares as you can afford in AT&T INC. I know someone, who knows someone, who knows someone, who knows the CEO and they said the shares would be going up next week.


P.S: I am happy with my dictionary.

[BoliverAllmon]

By the way, I think you should get all your money together and buy as many shares as you can afford in AT&T INC. I know someone, who knows someone, who knows someone, who knows the CEO and they said the shares would be going up next week.


P.S: I am happy with my dictionary.

especially if everyone jumps into at&t. that willl send the price up.

[BoliverAllmon]

A stock must pass 1 VALUE & 1 SAFETY criteria.

-------------------
VALUE

1) Earnings Yield [Inverse of PE Ratio] minimum = 2 x High Quality Bond yield
2) Current PE Ratio must be less than 40% of highest PE Ratio of last 5 years
3) Current Dividend Yield must be at least 2/3 x High Quality Bond yield
4) Current Market Cap must be less than 2/3 x Tangible Book Value
5) Current Market Cap must be less than 2/3 x Net Current Assets

-------------------
SAFETY

1) Total Debt must not exceed Book Value
2) Current Assets must be at least 2 x Current Liabilities
3) Total Debt must be less than 2 x Net Current Assets
4) Earnings Growth for 10 years = 7%pa Compound [i.e/ approx doubled over 10 years]
(Must take inflation into account)
5) Earnings must be stable over last 10 years [Less than 2 times when earnings fell by 5%]

-------------------
EXTRA (My own person criteria)

1) Must have Stable Dividend payments for last 5 years
2) Dividend increase each year for the last 5 years

how do you determine book value?

I would say that the business needs an earnings growth of at least 15% for 10 years. the average company is 12%, so if it isn't doing better than the average company I am not interested.

[pianolearner]

how do you determine book value?

I would say that the business needs an earnings growth of at least 15% for 10 years. the average company is 12%, so if it isn't doing better than the average company I am not interested.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bookvalue.asp

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-to-bookratio.asp

[BoliverAllmon]

hahaha no not really... i don't care about being a millionaire. I'm going by kiyosaki's definition. By his definition I want to be wealthy, not rich.

you know what is funny about kiyosaki. He offers great advice, but never anything specific, and he can't write for crap. That being said, I own three of his books and have read others from the library. HEHEHEHE!!!!!