Hollywood always overestimates the future?

[pianolearner]

I’ve just read that there is going to be a “Final Cut” release of Blade Runner to celebrate its 25th anniversary. This movie is definitely a cult-classic and arguably one of the best Sci-Fi movies of the 20th Century. However, the movie is set in the year 2019 and that is about the only thing which “dates” it. I can’t imagine human replicants serving space colonies within 12 years. When I first saw it over 20 years ago I really thought that the future setting was plausible.
Other great Sci-Fi movies which (may have) overestimated the future:

-2001: A Space Odyssey
-Total Recall

[counterpoint]

Did anyone claim, that Hollywood can predict the future? 

Science fiction is fiction (pure fantasy). If a person can't distinguish between reality and fiction, psychiatrists do call that "delusion".

[pianolearner]

Did anyone claim, that Hollywood can predict the future? 

Science fiction is fiction (pure fantasy). If a person can't distinguish between reality and fiction, psychiatrists do call that "delusion".

Counterpoint, your reply shows a complete lack of imagination and you have misunderstood my original point. 
Science fiction isn't always pure fantasy and I generally don't enjoy SCI-FI movies that are just pure fantasy. There needs to be an element of plausibility for me to enjoy it.  We all know that Hollywood movies generally stretch our imagination, but can you imagine watching a serious Western movie and the hero pulling out a laser gun during a gun fight? It would spoil the movie wouldn’t it?

[counterpoint]

There needs to be an element of plausibility for me to enjoy it.  We all know that Hollywood movies generally stretch our imagination, but can you imagine watching a serious Western movie and the hero pulling out a laser gun during a gun fight? It would spoil the movie wouldn’t it?

Do you know the movie "Attack of the killer tomatoes" or Woody Allen's "The Sleeper"? 

[pianolearner]

Do you know the movie "Attack of the killer tomatoes" or Woody Allen's "The Sleeper"? 

Yes, I have heard of them. Do you have a point? 

[thracozaag]

I’ve just read that there is going to be a “Final Cut” release of Blade Runner to celebrate its 25th anniversary. This movie is definitely a cult-classic and arguably one of the best Sci-Fi movies of the 20th Century. However, the movie is set in the year 2019 and that is about the only thing which “dates” it. I can’t imagine human replicants serving space colonies within 12 years. When I first saw it over 20 years ago I really thought that the future setting was plausible.
Other great Sci-Fi movies which (may have) overestimated the future:

-2001: A Space Odyssey
-Total Recall

  You do realize that all three of those are based on books (2 by arguably the greatest Sci-fi writer of all time, Philip K. Dick)?

koji

[pianolearner]

  You do realize that all three of those are based on books (2 by arguably the greatest Sci-fi writer of all time, Philip K. Dick)?

koji

Yes, but I have only read 2001. Do you agree with, (or at least understand) my point? George Orwell's book '1984' was published in 1949. I suppose it just doesn't have the same impact reading it today as it would have when first published. If it was re-titled to '2084' it might. If I was to write a SCI- FI book, or if I was a Director making the movie, I would set if 300 years in the future to ensure I wouldn't live to see that I got it wrong, BUT I would be hailed as a true visionary if it all came true within my lifetime.

[thracozaag]

Yes, but I have only read 2001. Do you agree with, (or at least understand) my point? George Orwell's book '1984' was published in 1949. I suppose it just doesn't have the same impact reading it today as it would have when first published. If it was re-titled to '2084' it might. If I was to write a SCI- FI book, or if I was a Director making the movie, I would set if 300 years in the future to ensure I wouldn't live to see that I got it wrong, BUT I would be hailed as a true visionary if it all came true within my lifetime.

  I understand your point, but if you look at the overall body of work by writers like Philip K. Dick, he was incredibly prescient as to "predicting" some things (E.M. Forster, in a remarkable short story, "the Machine Stops" gives a version of our internet); but beyond that, I never think it was the goal of science fiction to dole out these predictions.  The greatest science fiction, for me, deals with universal themes of what defines our reality, our consciousness, and what it means to be human (which I think "Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep" handles brilliantly).  Writers like Kafka and Borges, for example, would fall under that criteria for "science fiction" quite readily, and perhaps finally, this type of literature would finally get its due consideration from snooty critics who only regard science fiction as mundane stories involving space men and ray guns.

koji

[pianolearner]

  I understand your point, but if you look at the overall body of work by writers like Philip K. Dick, he was incredibly prescient as to "predicting" some things (E.M. Forster, in a remarkable short story, "the Machine Stops" gives a version of our internet); but beyond that, I never think it was the goal of science fiction to dole out these predictions.  The greatest science fiction, for me, deals with universal themes of what defines our reality, our consciousness, and what it means to be human (which I think "Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep" handles brilliantly).  Writers like Kafka and Borges, for example, would fall under that criteria for "science fiction" quite readily, and perhaps finally, this type of literature would finally get its due consideration from snooty critics who only regard science fiction as mundane stories involving space men and ray guns.

koji

Excellent points and I completely agree. Many serve as excellent metaphors which I think are lost on the average viewer. What did you think of the movie "The 13th Floor"?

[thracozaag]

Excellent points and I completely agree. Many serve as excellent metaphors which I think are lost on the average viewer. What did you think of the movie "The 13th Floor"?

  Could've been handled better; Simulacron 3 was one of my all-time favorite sci-fi novels growing up, and I was rather surprised when no one pointed out the obvious parallels to that book and the Matrix trilogy.

koji

[counterpoint]

Yes, I have heard of them. Do you have a point? 

You've written: "...but can you imagine watching a serious Western movie and the hero pulling out a laser gun during a gun fight? It would spoil the movie wouldn’t it?"

My point   is:

Nothing is so strange, that it is unlikely to be shown in a movie. I never heard of any "serious" Western movie   I even cannot understand, why people take any non-documentary films for serious. It's no accident, that Hollywood is called a "dream factory". But the topics of the movies show, what strange fantasies people have in their minds.

[thracozaag]

You've written: "...but can you imagine watching a serious Western movie and the hero pulling out a laser gun during a gun fight? It would spoil the movie wouldn’t it?"

My point  is:

Nothing is so strange, that it is unlikely to be shown in a movie. I never heard of any "serious" Western movie  I even cannot understand, why people take any non-documentary films for serious. It's no accident, that Hollywood is called a "dream factory". But the topics of the movies show, what strange fantasies people have in their minds.

  How utterly bizarre; do you only read non-fiction books, as well?

koji

[thalberg]

I’ve just read that there is going to be a “Final Cut” release of Blade Runner to celebrate its 25th anniversary. This movie is definitely a cult-classic and arguably one of the best Sci-Fi movies of the 20th Century. However, the movie is set in the year 2019 and that is about the only thing which “dates” it. I can’t imagine human replicants serving space colonies within 12 years. When I first saw it over 20 years ago I really thought that the future setting was plausible.
Other great Sci-Fi movies which (may have) overestimated the future:

-2001: A Space Odyssey
-Total Recall

I agree they overestimate the future.  Or maybe they underestimate how much time it will really take for those things to happen.....like 2001 Space Odyssey perhaps should have been called 5001 Space Odyssey. 

[pianolearner]

I agree they overestimate the future.  Or maybe they underestimate how much time it will really take for those things to happen.....like 2001 Space Odyssey perhaps should have been called 5001 Space Odyssey. 

Yes, however I must sympathise with Arthur C Clarke. The book was published in 1968 during the Space Race when America was preparing for the first moon mission. I would imagine if the Space Programme continued at the same pace then perhaps 2001 wouldn't have seemed completely unrealistic. I would have called it 2100 just to be on the safe side. I started reading '3001 The Final Odyssey' and I can imagine the technology described being available in approx 1000 years time. Perhaps he didn't want to get it wrong again. We'll have to wait and see.

[prometheus]

They don't overestimate. They just get it all wrong.


Look at pre-computer SFs. In their terms we are like a 500 years beyond 2500 already.

[mikey6]

George Orwell's book '1984' was published in 1949. I suppose it just doesn't have the same impact reading it today as it would have when first published.

I really don't care what date it is set in, it still has a very big impact coz so many of the issues are still relevant today.  It's supposed to be set in the future and as far as I can remember, the date doesn't play a huge role in the plot - do you really think, moving the title a 100 years ahead will give it that much more of an impact?

[cmg]

I really don't care what date it is set in, it still has a very big impact coz so many of the issues are still relevant today.  It's supposed to be set in the future and as far as I can remember, the date doesn't play a huge role in the plot - do you really think, moving the title a 100 years ahead will give it that much more of an impact?

Thanks, mikey6.

Really, what on earth are you people going on about it?  The future is only a projection of the past.  No one can imagine anything they don't already know.  That's the fundamental nature of human and (therefore) computer intelligence.  A decade here or there is not the issue.  Science fiction writers simply extrapolate present and past trends into a projection of logical possibilities.  It's a collective hunch.  It's fiction, therefore the intent is not to be predictive.

Relax.  The end, surely, is near.   

[pianolearner]

It has nothing to do with prediction! Nothing! Let's NOT use the word 'prediction' anymore,OK? I used the word PLAUSIBILITY, now please, look it up in the dictionary before replying.

Imagine a Sci-Fi movie that is set in the future. The movie is set in a world full of androids doing all of our tedious and dangerous work and there are vast moon colonies inhabited by humans. The cars hover and genetic engineering has eliminated all disease. This is ALL PLAUSIBLE but not necessarily a prediction. It would also be plausible if the movie was set in the year 2900AD, but much less plausible, even ridiculous if it was set in the year 2008AD.

[pianolearner]

I really don't care what date it is set in, it still has a very big impact coz so many of the issues are still relevant today.  It's supposed to be set in the future and as far as I can remember, the date doesn't play a huge role in the plot - do you really think, moving the title a 100 years ahead will give it that much more of an impact?

I said "it just doesn't have the same impact reading it today as it would have when first published"

You said it it yourself "big impact coz so many of the issues are still relevant today". Imagine the impact it would have if "today" was instead 50 years in the future? You wouldn't be able to make a claim of relevance. Thats what would make it more unnerving.

[themockingbird]

Yes, but I have only read 2001. Do you agree with, (or at least understand) my point? George Orwell's book '1984' was published in 1949. I suppose it just doesn't have the same impact reading it today as it would have when first published. If it was re-titled to '2084' it might. If I was to write a SCI- FI book, or if I was a Director making the movie, I would set if 300 years in the future to ensure I wouldn't live to see that I got it wrong, BUT I would be hailed as a true visionary if it all came true within my lifetime.

you simply cannot compare 'futuristic' work like 1984 to 'futuristic' work like i don't know, star trek. 1984 is a warning, speculation, and the only reason it's called 1984 is because it was written in 1948. orwell wasn't suggesting that things would actually be like that in 1984.

prometheus has got it right. sci-fi stuff 30 years ago imagines computers the size of giant spaceships, when in fact technology is progressing by getting smaller. that's just the beginning