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Topic: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote  (Read 2420 times)

Offline fftransform

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For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
on: November 04, 2012, 02:07:03 AM
That's all.  On Tuesday.


Who do you plan to vote for and why, if you want?

Offline faulty_damper

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #1 on: November 04, 2012, 08:10:01 AM
I'm voting NO on Prop 35.  That's the proposition in CA that punishes child pornography viewers even when they didn't make the porn, just saw it.  Just imagine what some vengeful enemy can do: send you child porn, you open it, you get busted and go to prison for 11 years. :o  Vengeful enemy: ex-girlfriend, wife, betrayed lover.... Yikes!  Treat your exes really well, people.  Or if not, and she sends you child porn, reformat the hard drive IMMEDIATELY before the feds break down the front door with a search warrant for your arrest under suspicion of child porn trafficking.

And repealing the death penalty sounds like a good thing.

As for national issues: I wish we had a president who knows what it's like not to have a lot of the things most people take for granted.



Offline rachmaninoff_forever

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #2 on: November 04, 2012, 12:33:15 PM


As for national issues: I wish we had a president who knows what it's like not to have a lot of the things most people take for granted.





I hate people in congress.  Almost half of them are mllionares, and almost all of the, grew up extra privileged so they don't know what it's like not being able to afford a ticket to a Valentina Lisitsa concert.
Live large, die large.  Leave a giant coffin.

Offline perprocrastinate

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #3 on: November 06, 2012, 04:03:39 AM
I feel bad for expecting a gigantic flaming political debate that would burn down the entire forum.

*slaps self*

Offline asuhayda

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #4 on: November 06, 2012, 04:06:21 PM
I thought American Idol started in January...  ;D
~ if you want to know what I'm working on.. just ask me!

Offline lloyd_cdb

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #5 on: November 06, 2012, 04:35:23 PM
I hate people in congress.  Almost half of them are mllionares, and almost all of the, grew up extra privileged so they don't know what it's like not being able to afford a ticket to a Valentina Lisitsa concert.


I'd disagree with this somewhat.  This applies more to senate and not the house, given there are so many more house seats and the election districts are smaller.  Good people in small communities are the ones that make it to congress, not people that drop 200 million to attempt to buy votes.  That is, unless voting districts are redrawn every year...

Personally, living in NY, my vote doesn't matter all that much.  I'm constantly criticized for "wasting a vote", even though democrats tend to win in NY by a decent margin.  My vote to either side is fairly irrelevant.  Given that there are such a wide amount of issues that major parties adhere to that can often contradict themselves simply to appeal to 1 issue voters, I tend to vote for 3rd parties that actually fall into my political beliefs.  I end up feeling better about it, even though my vote doesn't actually help anyone at all (excluding myself).
I've been trying to give myself a healthy reminder: https://internetsarcasm.com/

Offline faulty_damper

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #6 on: November 08, 2012, 10:00:44 AM
What's nice about mathematics and the sciences is that it can be used to make very accurate predictions of future events.  One mathematician predicted every single states' presidential election results, 50 out of 50 correct.  That's pretty damn amazing if you are utterly ignorant of science.  It's just cool if you are a scientist.

Just once, I'd like to hear Obama say, "***..."  Cuz u kno, he be black, and it might set off a media storm.  Did Obama just say "***"?  Yes.  Yes he did!  ;D

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cocktail-party-physics/2012/11/07/why-math-is-like-the-honey-badger-nate-silver-ascendant/

Offline lloyd_cdb

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #7 on: November 08, 2012, 08:26:38 PM
I'm blown away that this is even an article.  I work in finance.  You have people predicting crap all the time.  With so many people predicting, SOMEONE is bound to get it right.  Just because they got it right, they are a star.  At least, for 5 minutes until their next prediction is wrong.  It's simply probability.  Considering there are only 8 states that are swing states, you already have the other 42 decided.  This means that there are 256 possible choices for predicting the election.  Considering there are 311m people in the USA, I'm surprised there aren't more people claiming mathematical genius.  

Math can't be used to make very accurate predictions of future events, or else everyone would be billionaires from the stock market (I realize this is an oversimplification).  It can, however, give reasonable representations of how the variance changes for predictions further and further into the future.  This is how a lot of the mathematical risk management works in finance.   Now if only they actually listened to those guys...
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Offline chadbrochill17

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #8 on: November 08, 2012, 08:50:38 PM
I honestly would have preferred if less people voted. After all, just because you have the ability to vote, does not mean you have the intellectual backing to make an informed decision. This of course leads to poor choices and bad consequences.

Offline outin

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #9 on: November 08, 2012, 08:56:47 PM
I honestly would have preferred if less people voted. After all, just because you have the ability to vote, does not mean you have the intellectual backing to make an informed decision. This of course leads to poor choices and bad consequences.

That's the downside of democracy: When the majority (of those who bother to take part in the process) makes poor choices (in your opinion) you have to live with it.

Offline lloyd_cdb

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #10 on: November 08, 2012, 09:04:50 PM
I didn't vote.  My problem is not about idiots, but about the options.  Had I gone to vote, I would have voted for Gary Johnson.  My vote would then have been "wasted", and I'd be criticized for it (not that I really care).  So voting for what I actually believe in is apparently a crime against the state.  I just hate how the electoral college works since it makes it mandatory to vote for a conglomerate party.  I have to share my fiscal policy belief with the social policy of religious zealots, or share my social policy beliefs with the fiscal policy of people who don't understand basic algebra.  Instead of spending 3 hours waiting to vote, I spent 3 hours playing piano.  Opportunity cost at its finest.
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Offline ahinton

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #11 on: November 08, 2012, 09:59:03 PM
For Americans: don't forget Elliott Carter. Ever. You can't vote for him, of course - especially now - but, in spite of that, don't ever forget that he was/is an ineluctable cornerstone of your culture.

Best,

Alistair
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Offline faulty_damper

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #12 on: November 09, 2012, 05:28:24 AM
Who's Elliott Carter?  Is he the American who designed the Statue of Liberty?  That's awesome that he designed that thing.  It's HUGE! ;D

Offline ahinton

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #13 on: November 09, 2012, 05:58:10 AM
Who's Elliott Carter?  Is he the American who designed the Statue of Liberty?  That's awesome that he designed that thing.  It's HUGE! ;D
No, he didn't do that (even his wife didn't do it, actually), but what he did do has earned him a place in American cultural history that would be no greater than it is if he had - and I'm perfeectly sure you know who he is!...

Best,

Alistair
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The Sorabji Archive

Offline faulty_damper

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #14 on: November 09, 2012, 09:57:37 AM
Maybe, but considering that this is America, we're pretty ignorant.  But we are also pretty proud to take credit for things that are big, fast, and on our property, regardless of how it got there.

Offline fftransform

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #15 on: November 09, 2012, 07:55:07 PM
Math can't be used to make very accurate predictions of future events.

Of course it can.  That is a ludicrous statement.


I have to share my fiscal policy belief with the social policy of religious zealots, or share my social policy beliefs with the fiscal policy of people who don't understand basic algebra.

Clearly, you're the one who doesn't understand.

Offline lloyd_cdb

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #16 on: November 09, 2012, 09:35:21 PM
Of course it can.  That is a ludicrous statement.

No, it can't.  Take the time to actually read what I stated.  It can give you accurate ranges, but it can't accurately predict the future.  As I mentioned, everyone would be make money in the stock market if that were true.  The further you go into the future, the larger the variance of your prediction becomes.  This is pretty much exactly what inaccuracy means, which, strangely enough, is the opposite of "very accurate".  

Clearly, you're the one who doesn't understand.

Clearly since you didn't actually clarify or substantiate any claims backing your criticisms of me, I must be the one that doesn't understand.  ::)
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Offline faulty_damper

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #17 on: November 10, 2012, 08:51:02 PM
He predicted 50 out of 50 right.  The chance of him randomly getting one right is 50%.  For all fifty correct: less than 1 in 10,000,000,000,000.  (Someone please help me on the math, I'm not sure how to interpret .550=8.8-16.)

So he was obviously VERY lucky!

Offline lloyd_cdb

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #18 on: November 10, 2012, 09:04:10 PM
He predicted 50 out of 50 right.  The chance of him randomly getting one right is 50%.  For all fifty correct: less than 1 in 10,000,000,000,000.  (Someone please help me on the math, I'm not sure how to interpret .550=8.8-16.)

So he was obviously VERY lucky!

That's exactly my point though, that's how I did my math.  But the thing you're not realizing is that I could guess 42 of the states without using any math.  They are called "safe states".  They don't change much from election to election.  Those 42 states could be correctly guessed by everyone 99% of the time.  This means that you are only ACTUALLY guessing 8 of them.  Which makes it .58, which is a 0.4% chance of correctly guessing.  100/.4 = 256, the number I mentioned previously.  So, yes, HE was lucky, but 1 in 256 people would also be lucky if one person hadn't declared that a mathematical formula gave them the results.
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Offline j_menz

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #19 on: November 10, 2012, 09:31:42 PM
Of course it can.  That is a ludicrous statement.

I agree.

Wouldn't have mentioned that, but it so rarely happens.
"What the world needs is more geniuses with humility. There are so few of us left" -- Oscar Levant

Offline lloyd_cdb

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #20 on: November 10, 2012, 09:33:46 PM
I agree.

Wouldn't have mentioned that, but it so rarely happens.

Then explain how.

I honestly might be misunderstanding what you are meaning by "predict".  This is what I do for a living, I majored in Econ and Math, minoring in statistics.  I'm going back to school for a MS in Mathematical Finance.  I really might be getting caught up in terminology.
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Offline j_menz

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #21 on: November 10, 2012, 10:20:12 PM
Then explain how.

I honestly might be misunderstanding what you are meaning by "predict".  This is what I do for a living, I majored in Econ and Math, minoring in statistics.  I'm going back to school for a MS in Mathematical Finance.  I really might be getting caught up in terminology.


Physics, anyone?
"What the world needs is more geniuses with humility. There are so few of us left" -- Oscar Levant

Offline lloyd_cdb

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #22 on: November 10, 2012, 10:40:53 PM
I don't really consider that prediction, especially since this discussion started based on election results.  Knowing how long it takes a ball to drop from my hand to the floor isn't really a prediction, it's a mathematical given.  Gravity isn't going to change between when you calculate it and when you drop it or even during the fall.  You aren't predicting, you are calculating.

Prediction to me means guessing under conditions of uncertainty, whether it be through mathematical means or just throwing a dart in a random direction.  Prediction in terms of the relevant discussion was that a guy guessed the election results.  My point is that a prediction of the elections results doesn't obey a law of physics that isn't changing.  The typical constants you use in physics equations are, in this case, variables themselves.  

The closer to the event, the more accurate your prediction.  Similarly, the further from an event, the less accurate your prediction.  A guy stating he has a formula to predict an event in the future with accuracy isn't all that convincing if he's not giving any confidence interval.   Claiming it as accurate vs. claiming it as an educated guess (giving an interval range) are completely different.

EDIT: So I actually looked back at the article.  The author of the article failed to mention the statisticians actual confidence intervals until later in the article, which, by that point I had already scoffed at it.  So I apologize that I called him an idiot.  However, he guessed 49 of 50 states in the previous election, and 50 of 50 this time with the same model.  Guessing 49 of 50 really means he guess 7 of 8 based on my comments earlier.  So far he is 15/16, or 93.75% accurate.  Fairly decent.  But as I mentioned above, his numbers were adjusting based on time.
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Offline lloyd_cdb

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #23 on: November 10, 2012, 11:09:21 PM
After re-reading my post, I decided to look up "prediction" (yay wikipedia, so take it for what it's worth):

A prediction (Latin præ-, "before," and dicere, "to say") or forecast is a statement about the way things will happen in the future, often but not always based on experience or knowledge. While there is much overlap between prediction and forecast, a prediction may be a statement that some outcome is expected, while a forecast is more specific, and may cover a range of possible outcomes.
Although guaranteed information about the future is in many cases impossible, prediction is necessary to allow plans to be made about possible developments; Howard H. Stevenson writes that prediction in business "... is at least two things: Important and hard."[1]
Prediction is closely related to uncertainty. Reference class forecasting was developed to eliminate or reduce uncertainty in prediction
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Offline cmg

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #24 on: November 10, 2012, 11:50:06 PM
I didn't vote.  I have to share my fiscal policy belief with the social policy of religious zealots, or share my social policy beliefs with the fiscal policy of people who don't understand basic algebra.  Instead of spending 3 hours waiting to vote, I spent 3 hours playing piano.  Opportunity cost at its finest.

LOL!!!  This is the best.  Spoken like a true New Yorker.  Lloyd, you're the bee's knees!
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Offline j_menz

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #25 on: November 11, 2012, 01:26:31 AM
I don't really consider that prediction

So is tomorrow's sunrise a forecast, a prediction or a mathematical given?
"What the world needs is more geniuses with humility. There are so few of us left" -- Oscar Levant

Offline lloyd_cdb

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #26 on: November 11, 2012, 02:09:44 AM
So is tomorrow's sunrise a forecast, a prediction or a mathematical given?
I'm not sure I necessarily see a distinction between forecast and prediction except in regards to certain cases.  In regards to your example, though, it would be a given regardless of whether or not we could be hit by a meteor and torn to shreds (the probability effectively approaches 100%).  It would be a prediction if someone said a meteor would tear us to shreds without actually having any evidence.  It would be a given if we knew a meteor's mass, velocity, and directional vector.  A forecast would be that it would hit us between 7 and 8 pm (assuming it is expected that there are minute errors in the previously stated variables, but not enough to change it's probability of hitting us).

I guess another example would be:

I forecast it will be between 50 and 60 degrees tomorrow.
I predict it will be 57 at noon.
It is given that it will be above absolute zero.

The forecast in this case is usually based on atmospheric conditions that have been regularly studied. This is a great example of reference class forecasting.  The prediction is stating a specific case with an expectation that isn't necessarily supported by enough facts. As the time approaches, you can constantly revise your prediction to be more accurate.  The given is, clearly, given.

EDIT:

In regards to the election:

Due to the fact that the result is either black or white, a prediction and forecast on who won would basically be the same thing, exclusive of a third party winning or having the same electoral college votes (which are both insignificant probabilities).  Although, you could forecast that a candidate would win a state by 20-30% based on polling data.

Side note, what I do on a daily basis is forecast (by the wiki distinction).  When I present my work, I usually say something closer to 'prediction', so I don't usually see a distinction.  In my presentations I say "I believe xyz will be close to 90 on 12/12/12".  I don't give the confidence interval or a perfectly specific number.  If I gave guarantees I'd be fired since nobody is ever perfectly right.  If I went into the probabilistic values while presenting to art history majors, I'd probably be fired from their own insecurity.

I do want to say, though, that my point with all this terminology was not for nitpicking or attempting to over-intellectualize the discussion.  I'm simply saying that boiling it down to "math gives accurate predictions" is a terrible generalization while also being extremely misleading.
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Offline lloyd_cdb

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #27 on: November 11, 2012, 02:56:41 AM
LOL!!!  This is the best.  Spoken like a true New Yorker.  Lloyd, you're the bee's knees!

 I'M WALKIN' HERE!  ;D
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Offline faulty_damper

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #28 on: November 11, 2012, 04:04:40 PM
Umm... So.... How do I figure out how to interpret 8.9-16?  With your math and finance background, you can easily answer that question.

That's like, 16 zeroes after the decimal point, right?  Or is that 16 before it?  I majored in music, btw.  Help a musician out! ;D

Offline lloyd_cdb

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #29 on: November 11, 2012, 05:24:26 PM
Umm... So.... How do I figure out how to interpret 8.9-16?  With your math and finance background, you can easily answer that question.

That's like, 16 zeroes after the decimal point, right?  Or is that 16 before it?  I majored in music, btw.  Help a musician out! ;D

8.9^-16 = 1/(8.9^16).  It's not exactly easy to calculate the zeros.  What you are thinking of is 8.9 x 10^-16, which would be 0.00000000000000089.

Throwing it in the calculator, 8.96^-16 is ~0.0000000000000006453.  It is the same amount of zeros here, but that is not always the case.  For example, 1^-16 = 1, 1.1^-16 = 0.218.  
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Offline cmg

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #30 on: November 11, 2012, 06:06:10 PM
8.9^-16 = 1/(8.9^16).  It's not exactly easy to calculate the zeros.  What you are thinking of is 8.9 x 10^-16, which would be 0.00000000000000089.

Throwing it in the calculator, 8.96^-16 is ~0.0000000000000006453.  It is the same amount of zeros here, but that is not always the case.  For example, 1^-16 = 1, 1.1^-16 = 0.218.  


Did anyone else just feel their head explode??
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Offline faulty_damper

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #31 on: November 11, 2012, 09:39:16 PM
So I input .550 into the calculator and I get 8.9e-16.  What the heck does the 'e' mean?  Should I interpret the -16 and superscript?

Offline perprocrastinate

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #32 on: November 11, 2012, 09:42:15 PM
So I input .550 into the calculator and I get 8.9e-16.  What the heck does the 'e' mean?  Should I interpret the -16 and superscript?

It means 8.9 x 10^-16. Just a different means of scientific notation.

Offline faulty_damper

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Re: For Americans: Don't Forget to Vote
Reply #33 on: November 11, 2012, 09:51:00 PM
Thanks!  I wish my high school counselors had higher expectations of me instead of judging me by my appearance.  Instead, they were perfectly fine letting me graduate with only algebra and geometry thinking that I would never amount to anything.  Bitches.  Now I need to learn math again, not for a degree, but for my own education.
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