Prisoners dilemma

[Spatula]

Prisoners Dilemma:

You’ve probably come across this type of conundrum before:

If you understand Game Theory and the works of Nash, you should be able to come up with a solution

You are captured by the Russian KGB and are throw into some sort of court house.  You have no clue why you are there and you are interrogated and accused as a spy.  Just across in another soundproofed room, another quasi court house, there is another individual who was captured and accused of the same thing, and they don’t know what they have done to find themselves in such a predicament.

You have two choices, declares the judge.  You can confess to what you believe is a trumped up charge or you can deny any wrongdoing. Here is the catch.  The other convict is given the same choice whether to confess or deny.

You do not know what the other accused will plead.

If you confess, and the other denies, you will receive 1 year in jail and the other 25 years.

If you deny, and the other confesses, you will receive 25 years in jail and the other 1 year.

If both of you deny, then both of you get 3 years sentence.

If both of you confess, then both of you get 10 years sentence.

To chart this out


                                                                Other
                                           Confess                       Deny
    You             Confess         10/10                         1/25
                       Deny              25/1                           3/3

So what do you plead? Think carefully.

[BoliverAllmon]

I would tell the truth. no matter what that might be.

[luda888]

i would deny, it is a logic question. obiously the other guy would think the same thing " we both deny and we both get shorter time

[Spatula]

i would deny, it is a logic question. obiously the other guy would think the same thing " we both deny and we both get shorter time

do you know what the game logic term for that move is?

[Spatula]

i'll state what my thoughts are after a few more people decide their plea.

[xvimbi]

i would deny, it is a logic question. obiously the other guy would think the same thing " we both deny and we both get shorter time

do you know what the game logic term for that move is?

It's called a "cooperative" move!

[Spatula]

i would deny, it is a logic question. obiously the other guy would think the same thing " we both deny and we both get shorter time

do you know what the game logic term for that move is?

It's called a "cooperative" move!

how do you plea?

[Spatula]

I want to see what bernie pleads!

[xvimbi]

The problem with suboptimization processes is that both parties must cooperate in order to optimize the outcome of the global optimization process. However, from each party's standpoint, there is no reason to cooperate (suboptimization), because the other party can screw you over if it doesn't cooperate. Since you don't know how the other party is going to behave you cannot calculate the risk. In the real world, it is much better to have a risk that can be calculated than a risk that might be less costly, but that cannot be calculated. Therefore, one must confess.

[allchopin]

Since you do not know what the other guy will do it's essentially coin flipping, one side deny, one side confess.  Since these combinations result in 1 and 10 years to confess and 3 and 25 to deny, your best guess is to confess.  Why do we care what happens to the other guy?  Is this a bit of data that was left out of the problem?

[brewtality]

haha i had to study this in microeconomics last semester.

[Spatula]

haha i had to study this in microeconomics last semester.

I took a course ENTIRELY devoted to this!

Economics 373 - Game Theory and the concepts of John Nash

I'm still waiting for bernies post.  I want to see his intuition or logic in this matter.

[bernhard]

I would deny.

First because, out of compassion for the other guy, since if he confesses he gets only one year.

It is true that I will get 25 years, but this is actually a good thing - I can use the time to practise the piano. Actually I would love 25 years in prison. (What crime could I commit that would land me such a sentence? In the UK at the moment, prison sentences are pretty lenient, even murderers are getting away with 5 years).

On the other hand if he also denies, we both get 3 years. Darn! I hope he confesses!

Oh yes, it also happens to be the truth, and I have always admired those guys who when offered parole if they will just confess they prefer to remain in prison and maintain their innocence.

 

Best wishes,
Bernhard.

[allchopin]

It is true that I will get 25 years, but this is actually a good thing - I can use the time to practise the piano.

Yeh, I hear they're redecorating the cells with Steinways now, complete with all the duet sheet music two inmates could want.

[Spatula]

It is true that I will get 25 years, but this is actually a good thing - I can use the time to practise the piano.

Yeh, I hear they're redecorating the cells with Steinways now, complete with all the duet sheet music two inmates could want.

SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEETTTTTTT WHAT COUNTRY!!?!?!?!?!?!?!!?

OMG THAT IS HEAVEN!  Let me see who I should kill....


inni mini miini moo.....I'm gonnna kill bernie on my toe! 

 

[piano_learner]

I would confess because the downside risk is much lower.

My sentence

1) Me & Him Con      10
2) Me/Him Deny      3
3) Me Con/Him Den      1
4) Me Den/Him Con      25

Choosing to confess- The difference is a 9 year upside risk if he does the opposite and only a 7 year downside risk compared to denying together.
Choosing to deny - There is a 22 year downside risk if he does the opposite but only a 7 year upside risk if he does the same compared to confessing together.

[faulty_damper]

So if I deny and the other confesses, I get 25 years in prison?  Sweet!

And if I don't say a word, I can't be sentenced and will spend the rest of my days in the confessional room.

[Tash]

what happens if i refuse to speak?

[piano_learner]

what happens if i refuse to speak?

We would all be much happier! 

[Spatula]

what happens if i refuse to speak?

We would all be much happier! 

Quite the witty reply! good one!

Don't worry tashie...we still love you.  Um... if you refuse to speak...they'll consider it as denial.

[faulty_damper]

What if I'm a mute?

[Spatula]

What if I'm a mute?

Use pen and paper...or some other medium of communication.

If you're blind, mute, deaf, and mentally insane, you'd probably automatically lose the case.  Remember its the KGB you're dealing with so give up the "right to a free trial".

We'll assume they abide by what they say if you either confess or deny, that much you can trust them.

[Tash]

what happens if i refuse to speak?

We would all be much happier!

hey! that's not very nice! oh i'm gonna go off and cry now maybei'll never post in this forum again waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

[Spatula]

what happens if i refuse to speak?

We would all be much happier!

hey! that's not very nice! oh i'm gonna go off and cry now maybei'll never post in this forum again waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

No no no tashie...remember...the tree grows on happy land.

[piano_learner]

what happens if i refuse to speak?

We would all be much happier!

hey! that's not very nice! oh i'm gonna go off and cry now maybei'll never post in this forum again waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Oh Noooo! What have I done???

Please stay....

*Down on knees*

[Tash]

trees grow on happy land spatula sometimes i wonder what you are one...

piano_learner you offended me and now i may have to take me and my tiara to another forum...but they all suck...

[piano_learner]

trees grow on happy land spatula sometimes i wonder what you are one...

piano_learner you offended me and now i may have to take me and my tiara to another forum...but they all suck...

Is there anything I can do to stop you from leaving?

[Tash]

it's ok i won't leave cos then what would i do to waste time

*hears the rest of the forum groan* lol

[Spatula]

it's ok i won't leave cos then what would i do to waste time

*hears the rest of the forum groan* lol

I am on a computer stool.  What else?  God I'm not a drug addict! You're the one! Flashing yourself in public...sheesh! YES Trees do grow on happy land what the hell is wrong with that?

YOu have something against trees?!?!

[Tash]

no i don't have anything against trees and i'm sure they do grow on happy land. what's with all the attacks against me? something says you might not like me and gosh shock horror at that *gasps*

[Spatula]

no i don't have anything against trees and i'm sure they do grow on happy land. what's with all the attacks against me? something says you might not like me and gosh shock horror at that *gasps*

no no no...your statement should read, "what's with all the attacks against me? something says you DON'T like me and gosh shock horror at that EVIL THREE HEADED BEAST FROM THE HELL SHAFT"

I give that the seal of Spatula's proofread and approved for publication.

[faulty_damper]

Umm... Tasha, Spatula...

www.hotels.com

 

 

[Spatula]

Umm... Tasha, Spatula...

www.hotels.com

 

 

In Japan, they have what are known as love hotels where you pay a fee and you and your partner can procreate in different themed rooms.

They cost about $50 per hour for the cheap stuff to about $500 for the good ones.

[faulty_damper]

So in other words: you two can visit the hotel 10 times for the price of 1 expensive one.   Cheap bastard. But a cheap bastard who can get it 10 times!

[Tash]

no i don't have anything against trees and i'm sure they do grow on happy land. what's with all the attacks against me? something says you might not like me and gosh shock horror at that *gasps*

no no no...your statement should read, "what's with all the attacks against me? something says you DON'T like me and gosh shock horror at that EVIL THREE HEADED BEAST FROM THE HELL SHAFT"

I give that the seal of Spatula's proofread and approved for publication.

daaaarling i thought you would've observed that i don't directly say things i just suggest them, but if you want to call yourself a three headed beast from the hell shaft then go ahead. btw was IS with all the attacks against me, the other day you said you loved me, so now i'm just gonna go off and cry with my broken heart hahaha

[Spatula]

now i'm just gonna go off and cry with my broken heart hahaha

Hears a phone and a tissue paper...cry and call someone who cares.