You seem to be under the misapprehension that you do better in competitions by picking winning pieces. You don't. You get ahead by giving winning performances. Any piece will do if you can show them why. And no piece will do if you can't.
I think it really depends on the jury who have and what the "flavour of the moment" is at the finals.
If it is a Canadian Music Competition, then surely you have to play the Healey Willan PC.