I'd say about three times that.
The big catch... Potential, job maket, yadda yadda yadda... (watch out for what the "salesperson" for a college says. They are literally selling you something, paid upfront.)... That doesn't mean you graduate with any competence or that you'll even get or be able to find a job that can start paying off debt.
Potential... Yes, everyone has potential. And yes, a lot of 'everyone' will work hard. And yes, a lot will make progress.
Job market good? Lots of retirement in the field? Sure.. People leave, but that doesn't mean those job roles are refilled.
What you could ask a music school... How many of their graduates are getting jobs in their desired field within one year of graduation?
100% get "a job?" Ok, but that could mean McDonalds. "100% of our graduates get s a job straight out of college... at McDonalds."
-- Ditto on the music education side... "100% of our graduates get a job straight out of college... because those are the crappy teaching jobs no one else wants and people would rather 'not teach' than take. "
100% of performance majors are working in music jobs right after they graduate? ...Doing weekend gigs, pulling in a whooping $12,000/year doing that.
... get a symphony job after graduation.... in the middle of nowhere.
One interesting thing I've noticed is a lot of places aren't collecting data on how their graduates are doing. They study the heck out of potential students and how to recruit them. $$$ Do their graduates get a job? In their field? Are they happy with their career? Did the school prepare them for it? Are they still in their first job a year or two after graduation? Still in the field a year after graduation? Five years later? Ten? They don't collect that information because it doesn't bring in income for them, or it's not something they can market. Even if they did, they can always say, "Well, no everyone replied to our request for information, so the data we did collect isn't really representative..." Who does find your and contact the heck out of you after graduation? The alumni group, begging for money.
That's a little bit more realistic.
Keep in mind the college, the music school, and the teacher are all selling the class. Just getting you to sign up and pay for the class. If you don't learn anything, it's not that big of a concern. They probably have more people lined up after you to mill through the system. Even a one-on-one music teacher still wants to have demand for their classes. Demand = job security, higher pay, etc.