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question for 'bible belt' residents. (Read 990 times)

Offline huaidongxi

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question for 'bible belt' residents.
« on: September 20, 2016, 07:35:25 AM »
specifically, for those who usually get described as pale-complexion'd (a.k.a. 'white', disclaimer, do not myself subscribe to racial categorization) in the original southern u.s. states plus other regions often associated with the bible belt, in my experience, Missouri, Ky, Ind, OK, southern OH and Illinois, most of Iowa and portions of the midwest with parts of Kansas, Nebraska, N.Dakota, and there's UT with their own bible.  does der Trumpster (a.k.a. d.trump) really have strong support from this segment of the populace, or is it being exaggerated by him and his propagandistas ?

a route for his victory is getting mapped with him winning Florida, a handful of states from the regions described, thereby gaining an electoral college edge of two votes.

as we've learned by now, it can happen here.

Offline pjjslp

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Re: question for 'bible belt' residents.
«Reply #1 on: September 20, 2016, 05:28:38 PM »
I live in a borderline Bible Belt area that tends to vote Republican, and there is a pretty hefty amount of support here for him. (Not me! Can't emphasize that strongly enough.)

Edited to add: He doesn't have a chance of winning my state's electoral votes, so his support here is moot.

Offline dogperson

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Re: question for 'bible belt' residents.
«Reply #2 on: September 20, 2016, 05:49:43 PM »
The best source for answering your question is not those of us that live in these states or the Trump/Clinton hype, but the summary results of different polls.

Linked is the one for Florida:  some polls show a tie, some favor Trump and some favor Clinton

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

Offline georgey

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Re: question for 'bible belt' residents.
«Reply #3 on: September 20, 2016, 06:17:15 PM »
I live in a borderline Bible Belt area that tends to vote Republican, and there is a pretty hefty amount of support here for him. (Not me! Can't emphasize that strongly enough.)

Edited to add: He doesn't have a chance of winning my state's electoral votes, so his support here is moot.

I promised no political posts until after the election.  This is as far as I will go:
  
(Not me! Can't emphasize that strongly enough.)  Yay!  Oops.

He doesn't have a chance of winning my state's electoral votes, so his support here is moot.  Does your state name have a bunch of “l”’s?

Here is what the gamblers think on state by state basis and in total.  On the map here, hover over a state to get the probability of Clinton or Trump winning that state. As of my typing, Clinton has a 65.6% chance of being president.  Clinton has a 74.3% chance of winning my state of PA as I type. (I don’t gamble btw)

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Offline pjjslp

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Re: question for 'bible belt' residents.
«Reply #4 on: September 20, 2016, 06:41:32 PM »
He doesn't have a chance of winning my state's electoral votes, so his support here is moot.  Does your state name have a bunch of “l”’s?

How perceptive of you ;)

I don't even trust poll results anymore, because so much depends on who answers their phone, how the questions are worded, the order of questions, etc.

Offline huaidongxi

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Re: question for 'bible belt' residents.
«Reply #5 on: September 20, 2016, 08:03:50 PM »
concur re. the validity of polls.  the polls tell us that 'white' males in 'conservative' states heavily support der Trumpster.  wondered what folks here who resided in those regions might be observing.

Offline chopinlover01

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Re: question for 'bible belt' residents.
«Reply #6 on: September 20, 2016, 09:34:04 PM »
I promised no political posts until after the election.  This is as far as I will go:
  
(Not me! Can't emphasize that strongly enough.)  Yay!  Oops.

He doesn't have a chance of winning my state's electoral votes, so his support here is moot.  Does your state name have a bunch of “l”’s?

Here is what the gamblers think on state by state basis and in total.  On the map here, hover over a state to get the probability of Clinton or Trump winning that state. As of my typing, Clinton has a 65.6% chance of being president.  Clinton has a 74.3% chance of winning my state of PA as I type. (I don’t gamble btw)

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Hate to be THAT guy, but an electing getting site is hardly a political science journal ;)
Jazz Ambassador 8)

Offline mjames

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Re: question for 'bible belt' residents.
«Reply #7 on: September 20, 2016, 10:20:29 PM »
funnily enough these states also have one of the lowest standardized test score averages lol.

anyways, the us is a nation state founded by white people, and a majority of its population is white (although apparently that will change in a few decades). its only natural that conservative parties founded by white people would appeal to a lot of white people. people generally flock to things that'll benefit them. its precisely why French Muslims are more likely to identify themselves with liberal parties instead of parties like La Pen that like to claim that dark-skinned people are invaders or fake Europeans or whatever.

so yes, Trump appeals to a lot of white folk. Not just males, but women too.

Offline dcstudio

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Re: question for 'bible belt' residents.
«Reply #8 on: September 20, 2016, 11:24:38 PM »
There is really no choice only the lesser of two evils. I live in Mississippi which is as deep south as it gets. Trump has supporters here as does Hillary... it's pretty scary any way you slice it.


I have absolutely no idea who I will vote for...I may sit this one out.

Offline pjjslp

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Re: question for 'bible belt' residents.
«Reply #9 on: September 21, 2016, 01:07:18 PM »
There is really no choice only the lesser of two evils. I live in Mississippi which is as deep south as it gets. Trump has supporters here as does Hillary... it's pretty scary any way you slice it.


I have absolutely no idea who I will vote for...I may sit this one out.

Have you looked into Gary Johnson and Bill Weld? (Other than the "Aleppo" gaffe, which has been pretty much the only mainstream coverage they've gotten.) I was going to sit this one out for sure, but then I learned of this ticket with two popular former governors, honest men with more executive experience than the other two. I do not believe they will win, but it's the first time in many election cycles that I'm casting a vote FOR a candidate rather than AGAINST a perceived lesser of two evils.

P.S. I am not looking for a debate on this, and if anyone here would like to tell me that I'm wasting my vote, "it's really a vote for Clinton/Trump," he doesn't know what Aleppo is, blah blah blah.... I've heard it all and it won't convince me to change. ;)

Offline indianajo

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Re: question for 'bible belt' residents.
«Reply #10 on: September 21, 2016, 01:49:00 PM »
The Bible doesn't in any way promote racism, but it is pretty popular here.  You compliment a neighbor on his *th Infantry Division window sticker (US Army unit), pretty soon he is telling you about all the ****ers taking over the country.  I point out the refugees aren't African, he says they are just sand ****ers.  The KKK doesn't operate in its own name anymore, but the "conservation clubs" which are really shooting clubs, still operate around here.  After the monthly cookout weekend you hear some new racist "jokes" at work.  
I'm really lucky I got the pale pink skin and green eyes from the Dutch? grandparent.  I got most of the rest of me from the native American grandparent, who had brown hair, brown eyes, and brownish skin.  Had I looked like him I might have attended the separate wooden school the district ran for blacks before 1966.  NA's were black under southern state law.
Trump has really plugged into this under current of US "culture".  His rudeness and disrequard of any suspect before conviction fits right in with what you hear on the AM radio blasting out of pickup trucks.  R*** L******** and similar talk show hosts have been saying rude things for decades.  Now that element comes to the top of the election ticket.
I just wish H Clinton would advertise some actual solutions to the problems with this country.  For example, adding a goverment run option (quasi-medicare) to Obamacare, since the insurance companies exclude payment for any drug or treatment that is new and costs real money.  Deducting for that government option automatically from wages for the young without health insurance, that don't believe accidents will ever happen to them, instead of this stupid tax penalty for not having insurance. Health care access is simpler and more evenly distributed in Germany and Taiwan, possibly  even UK and Canada, if you believe a television program report.  
For an example new idea, require country of origin information published for products offered on internet or catalogs.  Online sales are growing in volume and products are nearly 99.9999999% of origin from the country that grabs resources all around Asia.  
For example, require schools that accept goverment backed loans, to require only computers assembled in this country.  You can't get a music or science degree in this country now without buying a ***-**** computer of a particular brand made in *****.  
This idea that manufacturing jobs are not necessary for Americans is hogwash.  Service jobs typically pay almost nothing with no benefits.  Unions mostly can't organize service jobs, bankrupcy and business reorganization under a new name, replacement by a similar new company with the same store shelves, is too cheap.  
The idea that everybody can be educated for a new-tech or medical job is drivel.  Many can't pay attention long enough to even study to be a  LPN (licensed practical nurse) yet they could show up at work  every day and otherwise are deserving of a decent wage.  For example, I've got the brains to be a physician, but catch every virus or bacteria I'm exposed to because probably of my Native American ancestors.  I decided age 18 after 4 bouts of measles and three of pneumonia I had no business hanging around hospitals.  And I'm not big enough in the arms and chest to be a fireman or policeman.  
Taking money from the rich and giving it in programs to the poor, the old democrat party solution to income inequality, causes serious problems.  The section 8 housing projects are centers of crime especially gunfights.  
Furthermore, Trumps proposed 60% corporate tax reduction offers serious problem of inflation due to the unbalanced budget it would probably cause.  HC should offer a 30% business tax reduction, since corporations are so desperate to move to a low tax country.  This should have happened already; an Ivy league proff was complaining on TV last week that government inaction was seriously hurting economic growth here .  
Despite pointing out a serious problem and having a couple of interesting solution (like renegotiating trade agreements), Trump is so wild and hate filled he scares me. More wars with more countries is not a solution, either, IMHO. However badly they are run by their existing regimes.  This election reminds me of a certain election that happened in 1933 that turned out very poorly. 
As far as which way this state will go, watch the polls.  I don't have any special insight.  

Offline georgey

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Re: question for 'bible belt' residents.
«Reply #11 on: September 21, 2016, 05:16:53 PM »
Hate to be THAT guy, but an electing getting site is hardly a political science journal ;)

You are correct, Chopin.  These are just accurate probabilities in my estimation.  I’m just a number’s guy. For example, if you decided to move to Canada if person “B” is elected, these probabilities will give the probability that you are moving to Canada.

I believe the problem is with a portion of SOME of the Media and members of a political party.  They will take a candidate’s accomplishments and cut them in half and will take the weaknesses of the candidate and multiply by 10.

THE FOLLOWING SILLY EXAMPLE IS INTENDED TO BE HUMEROUS:   ;)

Without going into specifics, allow me to show you the math of a HYPOTHETICAL case. Each candidate has 2 scores that range from 0 to 100.  An “accomplishments score” and a “weakness score”.   To get the true score of a candidate, subtract the “weakness score” from the “accomplishments score”.

Candidate A has an actual “accomplishment score” of 80 and an actual “weakness score” of 10.  Candidate A’s actual score is 80 – 10 = 70 (positive 70).  Certain media/political distortion changes this to 80/2 - 10*10 = 40 – 100 = -60 (negative 60).

Candidate B has an actual “accomplishment score” of 20 and an actual “weakness score” of 95.  Note that the media cannot distort above the maximum score of 100 so the “weakness score” of candidate B can only be changed from 95 to 100.  Candidate B’s actual score is 20 – 95 = -75 (negative 75).  Certain media/political distortion changes this to 20/2 - 100 = 10 – 100 = -90 (negative 90).

So we are left comparing 2 candidates with actual scores A = +70 and B = -75 (no brainer choice).  

Some of us take certain media/political distorted scores and compare A = -60 (negative 60) and B = -90 (negative 90) (not so easy of a choice).  

Some of us do our own custom made distortion formulas also:  Example: Candidate A = -100 (negative 100), Candidate B = +100 (positive 100).  ;)

NOTE: This is a HYPOTHETICAL illustration.  Any similarities to actual candidates (past or present) is purely coincidental. It is intended only as a comment on CERTAIN media and members of a political party and also a comment on the choice of some to use custom made distortion formulas to come up with a score for a candidate.


Offline georgey

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Re: question for 'bible belt' residents.
«Reply #12 on: September 22, 2016, 06:06:50 AM »
Have you looked into Gary Johnson and Bill Weld? (Other than the "Aleppo" gaffe, which has been pretty much the only mainstream coverage they've gotten.) I was going to sit this one out for sure, but then I learned of this ticket with two popular former governors, honest men with more executive experience than the other two. I do not believe they will win, but it's the first time in many election cycles that I'm casting a vote FOR a candidate rather than AGAINST a perceived lesser of two evils.

P.S. I am not looking for a debate on this, and if anyone here would like to tell me that I'm wasting my vote, "it's really a vote for Clinton/Trump," he doesn't know what Aleppo is, blah blah blah.... I've heard it all and it won't convince me to change. ;)

As you said earlier: "He (Trump) doesn't have a chance of winning my state's electoral votes, so his support here is moot."

Since Gary Johnson and Bill Weld are also not going to win your state, their support in your state is also a moot point.  ;D

Moot point as in a matter of no importance.  ;D

I'm not going to tell you that you are wasting your vote.  ;D

Also, what is Aleppo?   ;D

I AM JUST KIDDING!!!!!   ;)

Offline visitor

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Re: question for 'bible belt' residents.
«Reply #13 on: September 22, 2016, 11:58:35 AM »
.

Offline pjjslp

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Re: question for 'bible belt' residents.
«Reply #14 on: September 22, 2016, 05:06:40 PM »
As you said earlier: "He (Trump) doesn't have a chance of winning my state's electoral votes, so his support here is moot."

Since Gary Johnson and Bill Weld are also not going to win your state, their support in your state is also a moot point.  ;D

Moot point as in a matter of no importance.  ;D

I'm not going to tell you that you are wasting your vote.  ;D

Also, what is Aleppo?   ;D

I AM JUST KIDDING!!!!!   ;)

Ha! Actually, it's not entirely moot. If they can get 5% of the popular vote, the libertarian party will be eligible for federal campaign funds. The only vote in my state that is truly wasted is one for he who cannot be named. ;)

Offline themeandvariation

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Re: question for 'bible belt' residents.
«Reply #15 on: September 22, 2016, 05:38:06 PM »
"the libertarian party will be eligible for federal campaign funds."

Oh the irony!-- being that they want to gut (mostly) fed. funded programs.. EPA etc.


 

4'33"

Offline mjames

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Re: question for 'bible belt' residents.
«Reply #16 on: September 22, 2016, 06:23:22 PM »
government intervention is for commies

except when we need it, then its ok