Okay, finished that excel sheet. A few interesting takeaways (as of 34 entries):
The 2 pieces that are most likely to advance to round 1 are Mazeppa and Grand Galop Chromatique.
La Campanella is getting memed on. No, seriously. It has the highest % of picks for the title (21.88% of brackets chose La Campanella as the winner), the 2nd highest % of picks for a finalist (25%), and is 4th highest for semifinal picks (37.5%).
Grand Galop Chromatique has the best average ranking (87.5% chose GGC to advance to round 2, more than half believe GGC will be in the semis, more than a third believe GGC will be in the finals, and 1/8th picked GGC as the eventual winner).
GGC is also #1 in nearly all categories, except for championship, in which they are tied for #2.
Speaking of #2 in the championship, that group also includes Feux Follets, Islamey, and Petrushka mvt. 3.
Friska is the only piece that no one has picked to make the semifinals, and is last in all metrics I used.
The only pieces that no one has chosen as the eventual winner are Friska, K. 141, and Feux D'artifice.
There is exactly 1 bracket where Double Thirds made it past the 2nd round, and that bracket is also the only one that has it winning the whole tournament.
In all instances where Petrushka mvt. 3 was chosen for the finals, it won.
Grand Galop Chromatique, Toccata op. 7, Islamey, La Campanella, and Feux Follets are all above average in all the categories I measured. Mark them as favorites.
Ballade no. 1 and Mazeppa are at or above average in all categories as of right now. Put them in the dark horse category!
GGC and Islamey in particular are strong favorites, as they are in the top 5 in every metric I used.
Those are the things I found most interesting. If there's anything else you want to know, reply to this post!
