2 million die from bird flu

[pianistimo]

only two months to have this many die from avian flu?  wow.  that's a bad flu.  seems so strange that birds could carry such a deadly disease and spread it to humans.  or do i misunderstand something?  is it more easily transmissible once one person has it - to have it spread.  how effective are the immunizations?  what exactly is the 'bird flu pill' about?  wouldn't these things be a LAST resort - or would it be 'too late' to take a shot or pill after possible exposure.  this is for the scientists here. 

[BoliverAllmon]

where did it say that two million have died from bird flu

[pianistimo]

that many CAN die from bird flu in two months according to government preparedness programs.

btw, it's another commercial thing now - bird flu preparedness kits.
www.commercecorner.com/lifesecure/productlistLS.apsx?catid=493

i could get all these items singularly at wal mart, right?  maybe except for the mask? 

i'm not really in a panic about it.  in fact, i bicycle all the time with no mask or glasses on and have frequently been bitten by mosquitos.   just find it interesting that viruses are crossing the boundaries of animal, bird to human and visa-versa.  guess that if you work in at a chicken farm - you're probably not putting wild bird feeders around to attract wild bird droppings in the chicken yard.

* will now take note when someone says 'i don't feel well' and back up and put on the mask.

[rob47]

the wrath of g.o.d.

[prometheus]

About the 'real bird flu', the H5N1 strain. This is a flu disease that has come from Asia and has spead to Europe. This flu spreads from bird to bird, but can also infect other species, including humans. But it cannot spread from human to human. About 205 people have catched this H5N1 strain and 113 people have died. Most of these people died in 2004 and 2005 in Vietnam. Four people died this year in Turkey.



Now this is nothing new. Bird flu is known to be able to inflect and kill people in rare cases. But this is the dangerous part for developing a new human flu virus that can cause a pandemic. If a human is inflect with both a human flu and a bird flu they may intermix more easily and a totally new human flu, based on the bird flu genes, will develop.


This bird flu seems to have lost steam. It spead accross Europe but has not killed a single human. It does not seem that this virus will mutate into a human variant. Something that was feared a few years ago and started the whole thing. Maybe if the wild birds are done breeding the virus will become more active. Maybe we will have to wait until a new bird flu develops and see it is will spread to humans. The chance is small. But if it happens, and it does happen, it can kill 5 to 150 million.

So there is a chance that there will be a human flu, probably based on the genetics of the bird flu, that can kill a lot of people because it is a totally new strain of flu. This happened a few times the last century.

The big example, in 1918-1919 50 million to 100 million people died because of the 'Spanish flu'.

Now the Spanish flu is supposed to have come from birds. It mutated, or evolved, so it became a human flu virus. And then it is just like a normal virus, except that our body cannot fight it. At least not at first, before a lot of people die.

And yes, you can't really do anything about it. First of, any medicine that might help will be in too short a quantity. Of course it depends on how large the pandemic may be. It could be only 10 million dead world wild. But even then everyone in the world will want to get the medicine. You will have only one weapon, your own immune system.

And about the medicine that area available. A flu shot, which seems to be common in the US but is only used on the elderly where I live, only works for a particular strain of flu. Because the flu virus evolves very fast a new strain develops every time. So even the flu shot from last year is on nu use for the new flu strain of tomorrow. Let alone a flu virus that is largely alien to us because of the bird flu genes.

If this new dangerous flu virus shows up people immediately want to develop a vaccine for it. It is a very weak variation of the virus that learns our immune system how to fight the real virus. So our body will learn to produce antibodies that destroy the real flu virus.
To devep a vaccine will take some time. And when the virus becomes a pandemic everyone will want one. Look at the Spanish flu, it only needed two years to spead around the world. That was in an age without airplanes. In your world it can spear very very quickly. It could spear around the whole world before a 100 people have died from it.

And then you have 'virus slowers' (no idea how they are called in english). They try to slow down any virus in your body. I am not sure how effective these will be. They do not  cure you. They do give your body more time to develop antibodies to kill the virus. I am not sure if they would work at all. The virus slower could be entirely too slow itself. Again, if people all over the world are ill everyone will want them, even if they don't actuallly help in most cases.

As for the 'bird flu pill', no idea what it is. Must be a 'virus slower' but the name is totally deceptive.


Let me also point out that it is not certain that 100 million peole will die in the next 20 years. There could be a new virus outbreak tomorrow. It may kill 10,000 in Asia or it may  kill 150 million all over the world. Maybe the next pandemic will only be in 2106. Maybe, maybe even probably, not.

And when the bird flu happens. I guess one would hope a vaccine is developed before the virus reaches Europe. The virus will probably originate from Asia because of the large number of chickens and other birds kept there. I guess Northern America will be safer. But you never know. SARS reached Canada but not Europe, if I remember correctly. With planes everything can happen. If not then you have to trust in your immune system. I guess you will have to pray to god.

[pianistimo]

bio terrorism more likely. agreed about prayer, though.  thanks for the post prometheus.  somehow i thought it had already been proven that it could pass from human to human - but you say 'not yet.'  that's reasurring so far.

[prometheus]

Bio Terrorism?

Yes, there are a few very dangerous bacteria and virusses developed and stored by the US and the former USSR. And some other countries also. But we should hope we are safe from them. Just the same with nuclear weapons. I don't think terrorists could, or even want, to get their hands on a smallpox-ebola hybrid.


My father had to do a microbiology course because the company he works for now also develops a cheese coating. So now they have food hygene regulations.

He told he he was scared to death by all the virusses and bacteria. Some of the most dangerous strains are still in labs. Like smallpox. If they get somehow released it will be very dangerous.

I don't think one should be that fearful of terrorism. First of, that is what the government wants. Secondly, that is what the terrorists want. And third, there isn't a reason to. Sure 9/11 was bad. But the chance you die from a terrorist attack is smaller than the chance you die from a Astroid destroying earth. Let alone the chance you die in a car accident, if you are over 40 or 50, a heart attack or maybe cancer. The biggest chance you have of dieing is in a stupid accident in your own house.

The biggest danger of a pandemic is that it destroys the economy. Everyone will be fearful of becomming ill and no one will want to leave their house.

[pianistimo]

well, if it happens in the summer and the temperature is over 71 ? degrees then the strain will die out in four days.  if it happens in winter and the strain is under a certain degree or frozen it can last indefinately (according to cdc or some article i read). 

so, as i see it - we get a bird problem - isolate the birds, the bees, the people and put them under heat lamps.  get them really hot.  then, we don masks and gloves and go out to our normal jobs (that are now abnormal looking with everyone wearing all this stuff).  i mean, how do you drink a cup of coffee and not have to lower the mask? 

[rob47]

i feel this drawing most accurately sums up the problem

[prometheus]

Now don't be too mean.


But on the other hand. I would probably sit there and just watch what is going to happen while Pianistimo, who thinks she is in God's grace, goes mad with face masks and gloves.

[pianistimo]

i do not live on the border of mexico, rob 47, so this does not accurately describe things.   why did you make the usa look like a kangaroo?

the only thing i'm kinda curious about is there was this show last night on 'house' that was dealing with some kind of disease that hits people's pain center and causes them a lot of pain until they die.  then you read in the bible that there will be a plague which causes people to wish they were dead but last for several months.  revelations somewhere.  i certainly don't want to be caught in the 7 last plagues (of God).  i have no idea if it is talking about nuclear radioactivity or what - but i think we are living in very interesting times and if you take the bible literally - you believe that it will come true (even if God knew the mind of man from the beginning and how he would use the earth, the environment, etc. to kill and murder).

ok. it's rev. 9:3 and talks about the 'fifth angel' who allows war (radioactive problems) - especially since we see the 'sun and the air darkened by the smoke...'  and out of the smoke John saw 'locusts' which were probably his only description of helicopters.  he called them 'scorpions' because of the pain in their tails.  perhaps bombs?  they were told 'do not hurt the grass of the earth, nor any green thing, nor any tree, but only the men who do not have the seal of God in their foreheads (who do not think of God and give Him glory).  and they were not permitted to kill anyone, but to torment for FIVE months; and their torment was like the torment of a scorpion when it stings a man.  in those days men will seek death and will not find it; and they will long for death and it will flee from them.'

if this is so - then i don't want to be part of that problem.  i don't think God causes this per se - but we have allowed this death angel (so to speak) to come through our own doing.  only God will save us from ourselves (but only if we CALL ON HIM).  as i read the bible - all those who call on Him will be saved.  that's encouraging.

[henrah]

hehehe I like how God has red eye 

[pianistimo]

what people are condemned for in revelations is :  murder, sorcery, immorality, and thefts.  this is interesting to me that God allows us to punish our own selves.  he doesn't have to get majorly angry to have a lot of wrath towards evil.  He is so awesomely powerful to have created this universe, that one move of his thought or word is too awesome for us to comprehend.  we can fear God by obeying him, or fear him by fearing what He can do.  i prefer the former since we cannot control the latter in any case.  and, who would want to since He is perfect and loving.  if his love fills the earth with good things (and not evil) and we fill the earth with evil things...how can we justify ourselves.

[pianistimo]

do you realize one of the plagues (actually many) are already on us.  rev. 16:9 speaks of intense sunlight ('and men were scorched with fierce heat; and they blasphemed the name of God who has the power over these plagues; and they did not repent, so as to give Him glory).  RIGHT after this plague (which has already occurred to my way of thinking) is the 'pain' involved plague (of war?).  then, comes the drying up of the euphrates river to make way for the kings from the east (and all nations to gather for war).  this isn't an impossibility.  because it is plausible it gives room for much thought. 

[pianistimo]

according to revelations 16:17 after armageddon there will be a great earthquake.  say, if a bomb is dropped (or several) here and there (especially if near earthquake fault lines) what would stop the earth from a severe earthquake?  it says next that 'every island fled away, and the mountains MOUNTAINS were not found.'  that's a pretty severe earthquake.  and huge hailstones (about 100 lbs each) came down from heaven upon men: and they STILL blasphemed God because of the plague of hail (severity).'  *instead of repenting. 

i say - repent NOW.  it's so easy.  just tell God - 'i'm a sinner.  i know it. help me do better.  in this life - so i don't have to suffer these plagues and will not have to worry about  my safety.'  God takes care of his own.  even if we die we are safe with God - but He often gives divine protection, too.  His mind is changeable toward us with His mercy.  The problem is that we do not change sometimes.  we might need to read again about the 12 virgins.  1/2 had oil (the Holy Spirit) and 1/2 had to go get oil at the last minute (looking around for it).  the door was closed (the end of time) - and they couldn't get in to the kingdom of God.

[gilad]

wow, so that's what the hand of god looks like.

[pianistimo]

i think the hands of God are open (just as His arms) for all who come to him with humilty.  He is different than a parent obviously, but much is the same.  He disciplines all He loves.  if He didn't - we would feel LESS loved rather than more.  why not take the discipline now rather than later.  later is too late.

[henrah]

and huge hailstones (about 100 lbs each)

Did it really state the weight of such hailstones in the Bible?

[ahinton]

wow, so that's what the hand of god looks like.

Whether or not that is the case, we are not yet told what the hand span is, so perhaps nilsjohan might consider moving this thread to a sub-thread of the recent "How far can you reach? dont know if a poll like this already exists" thread if we are to find out whether the hand of God spans more or less than those of Rakhmaninov...

Best,

Alistair

[henrah]

I like your use of the Rach-meister's true name Ali* (hehe see my word play there?)

I personally would love to see God playing the peeyano, I wonder if he could handle the OC
Henrah

[pianistimo]

rev. 16:21 does say 'about 100 lbs. each.'  the translation is from the phrase 'weight of a talent.'

[ahinton]

rev. 16:21 does say 'about 100 lbs. each.'  the translation is from the phrase 'weight of a talent.'

I'm no Biblical scholar, as you know - but I will not merely defer to you here but applaud your most delightful and at the same time acerbic sense of humour in the choice use of the term "weight of a talent" - that's a really good one, you know?! - there's nothing quite like clearly expressed double or multiple meanings. It would therefore seem churlish in the extreme to take issue with what you wrote, so I do so very specifically only in the sense that "about 100 lbs. each" is a measure of weight, not of hand span (dear me, can one get more pedantic than that? - let's hope not!)...

Best,

Alistair

[pianistimo]

for a stone-age neanderthal it would be quite a talent indeed.  but, for God it is a mere act and the weight of a talent.  must show how stubborn our heads are (and how rockish).

[thalbergmad]

rev. 16:21 does say 'about 100 lbs. each.'  the translation is from the phrase 'weight of a talent.'

Thanks to the latest Euro directive, this has had to be changed to "about 44 kilos"

Thalxx

[johnny-boy]

A mere bag of shells considering Earth's population is estimated at 6.1 billion. It's nature's way of cleaning house.

John

[thalbergmad]

wow, so that's what the hand of god looks like.

This is what it looks like.

[prometheus]

Actually, Maradonna admitted this week it was actually his own hand and not the hand of god.


We had company offering live cable football/soccer that made several commercials about new cool features they offered through digital TV.
One of them was 'the hand of god'. Either because of those new Nike balls being so light they wobble and make strange unpredictable motions or they manipulated a video, but they had this video were a ball was shot at the goal, too high. But then it was suddenly pushed into the goal by a huge hand from the sky. In the replay the commentator identified it as 'the hand of god'. It was so funny.

But then christian fundamentallists were offended and they decided to leave it out the next 'commercial season' or something.