brexit?!!?

[ahinton]

i was thinking, for all the arguing the 'losing side' is making w/ a wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth like their world will end.

England has been around A LONG TIME, way before the EU, hundreds of years they and they built one of the greatest empires in the not too distant past. Heck even more than 300 years ago, there was still something like 800 years of history.

I hardly think the short amount of time they were w/ the EU was critical, it seems like was little more than a 'blip' in her long and evolving history and story.  

I think the speculative nature of a lot of the arguing i've read on elsewhere on the interwebs seems to conveniently ignore the fact that England can be fine and strong, and thrive (not just survive) quite fine on her own. there's a track record there, an it sort of sells the British a bit short of their potential too see a "need'' to be a part of some larger union.

again i'm not part of the discussion as i don't live there, didn't vote, etc. but from a purely observational standpoint the evidence is overwhelming in supporting the argument that England has done a pretty fine job and gotten through worse (MUCH WORSE....) in the past on her own, or  am I missing something?

Since you ask and if you'll pardon my saying so, yes, I believe that you are.

To begin with, this is not about "England" but about the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Great Britain comprising England, Scotland and Wales. That United Kingdom (UK) is an EU member state; none of its constituent parts is so in its own right and never has been.

There was once a British Empire and a British Commonwealth; only the latter remains.

England has indeed been around far longer than EU but, again, don't forget that it was not England that went to war in WWI but Great Britain and not England that went to war in WWII but the United Kingdom.

Whilst John Donne famously wrote "no man is an island", three of the four parts of UK do occupy an island and the fourth prt occupies the northern part of another island. However, the idea of England - or UK - somehow managing on its own is utterly fatuous. Germany, the most powerful and populous nation in EU with the most successful economy, cannot manage on its own either. The notion of isolationism belongs to the century before yesteryear; trade, the internet and so very much else is all interconnected, as indeed are we all. What some people seem conveniently to forget is that many of these connections to Western Europe in particular were outcomes of past colonisations, by Britain, France, the Netherlands, Spain and Portugal especially.

Whilst I do not believe that more than a handful of UK's Leave voters are "little Englanders" (they could hardly be that in Wales anyway) or racists, such mentalities do still exist, although they tend largely to manifest themselves in extremist political parties and (dis)organisations such as BNP, National Front, English Defence League, English Democrats and the like, all of which are tiny minority parties that have never had so much as a single seat in Parliament; only UKIP has managed that and their only seat there is occupied by a Conservative defector (the only one such, Mr Cameron please note).

There appear now to be three possible ways out of the Brexit problem.

The first is to hold a General Election (which seems reasonably likely) and let a new government (assuming one could even be formed in the present climate, which is by no means certain) assume responsibility for the ways forward; the problem with this is that the divisions in the Conservative Party are widening and those in the main opposite Labour Party are opening up so rapidly as almost to rip it to shreds, so it's hard to see how a General Election could produce any kind of viable government for the foreseeable future.

The second is a re-run of the referendum, preferably on the lines of the terms and conditions called for by the petitioner; this should not be too difficult to do, especially in the wake of the debate on that petition that Parliament is legally bound to have.

The third, quickest and most sensible is for Parliament to declare that it will not proceed with Brexit because the referendum result confers no legal obligation upon it to do so - and it would not have conferred such an obligation even had it gone the other way. Whilst this seems unlikely, not least because it would make the present government look quite incredibly stupid (as which in any case its having called an unnecessary referendum in the first place clearly identifies it already), it won't matter what it does now, it's still going to look incredibly stupid. The ball is therefore in Parliament's court to make and declare such a decision and the sooner the better, so that all will then know where they stand. Were such a move to incite suffficent protest from Leavers (which undoubtedly it would), Parliament could (and probably should) respond by calling a second referendum under those far tougher terms and conditions set out by the petitioner and then only if its result complied therewith (i.e. 75%+ turnout and 60%+ votes for the winning side) could it be accepted and ratified; were this to occur and there were, say, a 77% turnout and the Leave side achieved, say, 62% of the vote, I would accept that result, albeit still with great regret, provided that as many as possible of the votes on both sides would not have been be cast under the influence of the kinds of lies, misleading statements and the rest that demeaned the first referendum (and, since so many of those lies, &c. have since been identified, I think that a second attempt around would be less at risk of being afflicated thereby).

David Cameron is still the Prime Minister and UK is still an EU member state; it's therefore over and up to him and his government to ensure that Parliament makes this move sooner rather than later; if he does this, the ensuing rescue operation might even succeed in a marginal reduction of the ignominy that he has visited upon himself and the country.

Best,

Alistair

[visitor]

my head hurts.
i learned something new.
just as confused as ever about the whole thing.

[iansinclair]

No, visitor, you're not missing a thing -- and I think your remarks are very well taken.  At the moment everyone is performing the usual -- "when in danger, or in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout" routine.  However, as you so aptly note, the United Kingdom -- all four pieces of it -- had a long and enviable track record of doing that, and then pulling together and facing whatever external nonsense happens with a truly awesome coherence.  They may fight internally and sometimes spectacularly -- but faced with something outside?  Not so much.

One can hope that that spirit is still there.  I think it is, although somewhat diluted (and not just by immigration at all!), in the majority of decent common people, from Cornishmen to John O'Groats, from Dover to Cape Wrath.

[mjames]

The circumstances that are present today are different than the ones that existed during the height of the British empire. One of them being, as Ahinty already pointed out, expansion, imperialism, and colonialism.

It's very troubling to see so many people going along with rash economical and political positions because, "it's okay, we're the Brits, we'll prosper once again." It's an appeal to nationalism and tradition. In the modern age that doesn't work any more, what you should appeal to is data. Though I'm not siding with the ridiculous hyperbolic statements regarding "the doom of England", it's hard to deny the facts. One them being that various financial institutions are already beginning to plan their relocation to somewhere outside of the London/England/UK region, considering the government chooses to implement article 50.

Man, who knew Euro politics could be so fun?



yes ur pain is my pleasure

[ahinton]

No, visitor, you're not missing a thing -- and I think your remarks are very well taken.  At the moment everyone is performing the usual -- "when in danger, or in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout" routine.  However, as you so aptly note, the United Kingdom -- all four pieces of it -- had a long and enviable track record of doing that, and then pulling together and facing whatever external nonsense happens with a truly awesome coherence.  They may fight internally and sometimes spectacularly -- but faced with something outside?  Not so much.

One can hope that that spirit is still there.  I think it is, although somewhat diluted (and not just by immigration at all!), in the majority of decent common people, from Cornishmen to John O'Groats, from Dover to Cape Wrath.

Much as I appreciate your sentiments here, they can hold good as you express them only for as long as UK still has those four parts and it is far from unlikely that two of them quit, leaving in their wake the United Kingdom of England and Wales as mentioned upthread.

Moreover, notwithstanding all the acrimony, lies and the rest that characterised the campaign and influenced the result to some degree in a way that it should not have done, I am by no means convinced that "at the moment everyone is performing the usual "when in danger, or in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout" routine", not least because the campaign's over, the result is both painfully close and unexpected and we're all now left with a "what on earth to we do now?" scenario so, apart from the internecine wars in the Labour Party, the deepening doubts and divisions within the Conservative Party and the typically garrulous barrow-boy rantings of Mr Farage, I don't believe that this any longer applies; yes, there's danger which has arisen from the unwarrantable calling and running of this unnecessary referendum and from the uncertainy, instability and drastic financial consquence that followed announcement of the result, there's widespread doubt as to where, how and when to proceed from here, but there seems to be rather more standing in one place not knowing where to go than running in circles and the screaming and shouting seems, as I mentioned, to be confined largely to inter-party wrangling and the wearisome and supererogatory Farage noise-box.

The simplest solution now would be the third of those that I mentioned in my previous post and, altough it would mean all the eggs in the land attaching themselves to UK MPs, it would at least put an end to Brexit once and for all unless a subsequent protest from Leavers triggered a second referendum under those much stricter conditions also mentioned above.

Best,

Alistair

[ahinton]

The circumstances that are present today are different than the ones that existed during the height of the British empire. One of them being, as Ahinty already pointed out, expansion, imperialism, and colonialism.

It's very troubling to see so many people going along with rash economical and political positions because, "it's okay, we're the Brits, we'll prosper once again." It's an appeal to nationalism and tradition. In the modern age that doesn't work any more, what you should appeal to is data. Though I'm not siding with the ridiculous hyperbolic statements regarding "the doom of England", it's hard to deny the facts. One them being that various financial institutions are already beginning to plan their relocation to somewhere outside of the London/England/UK region, considering the government chooses to implement article 50.

Man, who knew Euro politics could be so fun?

Well, I for one didn't - and I still don't!

In all of this it is unwise at best and dangerous at worst to overlook the inescapable facts that

(a) the vast majority of the electorate did not demand this referendum in the first place and had no obvious appetite or need for it

(b) it was called because of the unfounded fears on the part of the Conservative party in government of the rise of and defections from itself to UKIP, which still has only one MP out of 650.

(c) whereas the only possible severance to be debated and voted on was that of UK from EU, the outcome has given rise to the real risk of severance of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar from UK in order that each may apply to join EU in its own right.

It will be interesting - not to say ironical in the extreme - if any of those financial institutions that you mention relocate to an independent Scotland following its becoming an EU member in its own right!

Best,

Alistair

[mjames]

Well, I for one didn't - and I still don't!

In all of this it is unwise at best and dangerous at worst to overlook the inescapable facts that

(a) the vast majority of the electorate did not demand this referendum in the first place and had no obvious appetite or need for it

(b) it was called because of the unfounded fears on the part of the Conservative party in government of the rise of and defections from itself to UKIP, which still has only one MP out of 650.

(c) whereas the only possible severance to be debated and voted on was that of UK from EU, the outcome has given rise to the real risk of severance of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar from UK in order that each may apply to join EU in its own right.

It will be interesting - not to say ironical in the extreme - if any of those financial institutions that you mention relocate to an independent Scotland that's an EU member in its own right!

Best,

Alistair

You actually didn't, I misread you.
In regards to imperialism, my point was if you're going to ride behind the glory of the olden days, might as well also consider the circumstances that made them be. Things are much different now. Politicians can't antagonize others (have you seen Farage's EU parliament speech?), make unbelievable decisions that are VERY likely to damage your economy, all because you're backed by a plan that says nothing but "we'll be fine because we used to have an empire." It's very very very silly.


It'll be funny if a large part of London's financial sector shifts to Glasgow/Edinburgh. However at this point, I still have doubts that Britain will actually go through this. It seems like everyone is, including the Brexit leaders, are reluctant to go forth with article 50.

We'll see how it goes!

[ahinton]

In regards to imperialism, my point was if you're going to ride behind the glory of the olden days, might as well also consider the circumstances that made them be. Things are much different now. Politicians can't antagonize others (have you seen Farage's EU parliament speech?), make unbelievable decisions that are VERY likely to damage your economy, all because you're backed by a plan that says nothing but "we'll be fine because we used to have an empire." It's very very very silly.

Well, it would indeed be so but for the fact that few people actually take such a view.

It'll be funny if a large part of London's financial sector shifts to Glasgow/Edinburgh. However at this point, I still have doubts that Britain will actually go through this. It seems like everyone is, including the Brexit leaders, are reluctant to go forth with article 50.

We'll see how it goes!

Yes, coyness on proceeding with Article 50 notably remains, not least because of its irrevocability, I suspect. The Parliament website confirmns that even if the petition is debated in HoC it will not force a second referendum, but if it attracts sufficient attention it might yet persuade Parliament to proceed with one nonetheless - or it might even pesuade it to do the right thing by abandoning Brexit altogether and taking and dealing with the consequences, whatever they might be.

In the meantime, Parliament surely has enough major domestic problems on its hands in having to deal with the Prime Minister's resignation and replacement, the vote of no confidence in the Labour leader who says he's not going anyway and, on top of all that, the risk that Scotland might in the interim trigger a second referendum to exit UK and Northern Ireland and Gibraltar might trigger a first one with the same aim.

Best,

Alistair

[mjames]

Well, it would indeed be so but for the fact that few people actually take such a view.

A lot more than you think.
XD

[gep]

From what I read and see what is currently happening in the British government is that it, such something as remains at all, is very busy rearranging the deck-chairs on the Titanic…  It seems the EU Parliament isn’t going to wait for the UK government to make up its mind, but is making up its mind for it. Much as I find Juncker a fishy type, he did quite rightly ask Farage what he was doing in the EU Parliament, speeching today. In the meantime Boris Backer sounds as if he is trying to launch a RemaIN campaign.

I am driven to ponder how many fans there are in the UK (currently, there will not be many fans of the UK..), and if they may be able to take the ..load… If indeed now Iceland already beats England, things are going downhill fast. I fear Albion might become Albania.2 soon. Something that might hurt the other EU countries as well. The genie is quite out of Pandora’s box, and when and where it might and will end, I do very much wonder…

All best,
gep

[thalbergmad]

i was thinking, for all the arguing the 'losing side' is making w/ a wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth like their world will end.

Exactly and it is really pathetic. The suggestion of another referendum is actually more stupid than the one i saw for a re-run of the Battle of Hastings. The attitude of the losers is infantile at best and that includes the vast majority of politicians who campaigned to stay in and managed to turn an almost certain victory into a dismal failure through their own inability to connect with the average man.

 A large share of the blame must rest squarely on the shoulders of that piss pathetic 70's dinosaur otherwise known as Corbyn. He complete alienated large swathes of the North East and Midlands by continuing to prattle on about the positives of large scale immigration without any recognition of the strain it can place on communities.

Markets are reacting to project doom and we really need our MP's to stop all the sniping, give some ground and build a future for our children outside of the EU and leave them to carry on destroying Greece and letting 75 million Muslims into Europe.

Thal

[iansinclair]

Exactly and it is really pathetic. The suggestion of another referendum is actually more stupid than the one i saw for a re-run of the Battle of Hastings. The attitude of the losers is infantile at best and that includes the vast majority of politicians who campaigned to stay in and managed to turn an almost certain victory into a dismal failure through their own inability to connect with the average man.

 A large share of the blame must rest squarely on the shoulders of that piss pathetic 70's dinosaur otherwise known as Corbyn. He complete alienated large swathes of the North East and Midlands by continuing to prattle on about the positives of large scale immigration without any recognition of the strain it can place on communities.

Markets are reacting to project doom and we really need our MP's to stop all the sniping, give some ground and build a future for our children outside of the EU and leave them to carry on destroying Greece and letting 75 million Muslims into Europe.

Thal

Believe it or not, Thal, I agree with all three paragraphs!  Basically, OK, it's done, let's get on with it.

[thalbergmad]

Believe it or not, Thal, I agree with all three paragraphs! 

Dangerous to agree with me sir but thanks for your support. I have lost count of the times i have been labelled as racist, litte Englander and far right scum in the last few days.

The left has really lost it in more ways than one.

Thal

[ahinton]

Exactly and it is really pathetic. The suggestion of another referendum is actually more stupid than the one i saw for a re-run of the Battle of Hastings.

I would be the first to agree (as I have already indicated) that a far more effective and credible solution than a referendum re-run would be that Parliament simply rejects the entire Brexit thing and has done with for good and all; it would take far less time than a referendum re-run and all the arguments thereafter (and, speaking of saving time, I'm reminded of Alan Jay Lerner's curt retort to Andrew Lloyd Webber's question to him as to why it might be that people take an instant dislike to him - namely "it saves time").

The attitude of the losers is infantile at best and that includes the vast majority of politicians who campaigned to stay in and managed to turn an almost certain victory into a dismal failure through their own inability to connect with the average man.

I do agree with you that the principles (if one could seriously call them that), structure and aims of the referendum as launched represent an "inability to connect with the average man" (or woman) as well as a cynical ploy to hang it all on unfounded fears of the possibility of Tories being usurpoed by UKIP, but there are no losers or winners until the government of the day (whichever that might be at the time if indeed there is one such) presses that Article 50 button wich it seems that no one wants to press.

A large share of the blame must rest squarely on the shoulders of that piss pathetic 70's dinosaur otherwise known as Corbyn. He complete alienated large swathes of the North East and Midlands by continuing to prattle on about the positives of large scale immigration without any recognition of the strain it can place on communities.

Whilst your assessment of Corbyn is not one with which I would argue, I really do believe that a civilised attitude to all of what now faces us all makes it incumbent upon each of us appropriately and fairly to ascribe suchever blame as is apposite only to those who deserve it and, since Corbyn didn't structure and launch the referendum or oversee its operation, I do not think it fair to blame him for what is quite clearly Cameron's responsitility.

Markets are reacting to project doom and we really need our MP's to stop all the sniping, give some ground and build a future for our children outside of the EU and leave them to carry on destroying Greece and letting 75 million Muslims into Europe.

That the sniping has to stop I fully agree, but the possiblity of building a future for the children of those who have them (which I don't) does not have to be "outside EU"; why should it be? - in the sense that the children of EU member states' citizens have as much right as anyone else to a decent future. To your wholly unsupported remark about letting in 75m (from what reliable and bona fide research might this come?) Muslims into Europe, I would say only that you don't have to have Muslims "coming in" to Europe for there to be increases in Muslim populations there; anyone can be converted to Islam, Christianity, Hinduism, Buddhism et al without their having first to come from some other area than Europe in order somehow to "introduce" it/them (when it's already there). Europe as a whole (not just EU but all the Council of Europe states) is and will continue to be a multi-faith, multicultural continent and there's nothing that you, Mr Farage or anyone else can do to stop that.

Best,

Alistair

[ahinton]

Believe it or not, Thal, I agree with all three paragraphs!  Basically, OK, it's done, let's get on with it.

It might be, but it ain't over until the fat lady sings that she's invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

Best,

Alistair

[ahinton]

Dangerous to agree with me sir but thanks for your support. I have lost count of the times i have been labelled as racist, litte Englander and far right scum in the last few days.

The left has really lost it in more ways than one.

I don't give a monkey's about "the left" (whoever anyone might think them to be) in this context because this is far larger than any such considerations. I am not labelling you as anything; this goes beyond all that rubbish.

Best,

Alistair

[ronde_des_sylphes]

The suggestion of another referendum is actually more stupid than the one i saw for a re-run of the Battle of Hastings. The attitude of the losers is infantile at best and that includes the vast majority of politicians who campaigned to stay in and managed to turn an almost certain victory into a dismal failure through their own inability to connect with the average man.

 A large share of the blame must rest squarely on the shoulders of that piss pathetic 70's dinosaur otherwise known as Corbyn. He complete alienated large swathes of the North East and Midlands by continuing to prattle on about the positives of large scale immigration without any recognition of the strain it can place on communities.

Point 1: Yes. It's just not acceptable.

Point 2: The entire political class is culpable: the Tories for relentlessly using immigration as a political football (out of expedience because they know it is a weak spot for Labour), and the Blarite / Harmanite Labour groups for first encouraging it in order to have cheap labour, then trying to make the socio-political consequences go away by shouting 'racist' at anyone who questioned those consequences, irrespective of their reasons for doing so.

Having connived to create a thoroughly poisonous and unresolved situation, the political class offers people a mechanism to appear to resolve it, then act surprised by the outcome.

I don't in truth think Corbyn is that big a part of the problem: all the preconditions which have combined to generate this result predate his rise from backbench obscurity. He may not be that effective a campaigner on it (and indeed his prior record indicates he's really rather Eurosceptic) but I think he's an adjunct to the result, not a cause.

[thalbergmad]

I would be the first to agree (as I have already indicated) that a far more effective and credible solution than a referendum re-run would be that Parliamet simply rejects the entire Brexit thing and has done with for good and all; it would take far less time than a referendum re-run and all the arguments thereafter

You seem to be struggling with this, but it is in fact very simple. We held a referendum and more than a million people voted to leave rather than stay. It is true that the result is not legally binding, but to ignore it and override the decision would set a very dangerous precedent. It would distance the electorate even further from MP's and i doubt if anyone has got the balls even less the authority to try and do it. David Cameron has already ruled it out and if the next PM is from the Brexit side (which has already been articulately argued by Jacob Rees Mogg), then hell would freeze over first.

We are a democratic Country and i hope we always are, so please drop this cobblers, accept the result and go and do something useful like compose an opera.

Thal

[ahinton]

You seem to be struggling with this

Not at all; had I been so, I would have refrained from writing about it intil I havd ceased to do so.

but it is in fact very simple. We held a referendum and more than a million people voted to leave rather than stay

True, of couse  but then more than a million people voted to remain and those who voted to leave represnet just under 37.5% of the electorate.

It is true that the result is not legally binding, but to ignore it and override the decision would set a very dangerous precedent.

But it is not a "decision"; as the result is not legally binding, as you yourself rightly admit, iut cannot be seen as a "decision" on anyone's part.

It would distance the electorate even further from MP's and i doubt if anyone has got the balls even less the authority to try and do it.

]I do accept that the likelihood that anyone in authority has the balls to say "right, that's it, stop it all here and now" is remote, but that does not in itself excuse that lack of balls. Yes, of course such a move would do exactly as you say but, when you consider the background to the launch of this entirely unnecessary referendum and the manner in which it's been handled since that launch, the entire shebang already makes the government of the day look utterly stupid, so what's the problem with compounding one unforgivable stupidity with another if at least it saves UK squillions of devalued pounds in rewriting rafts of legislation ratified over more than 40 yeas and all the other equally expensive extricaton processes that will pertain in the event of a Brexit being seen through?

David Cameron has already ruled it out and if the next PM is from the Brexit side (which has already been articulately argued by Jacob Rees Mogg), then hell would freeze over first.

I'm not about to have my opinon influenced by the Jewish Welsh cat, thank you.

We are a democratic Country and i hope we always are, so please drop this cobblers, accept the result and go and do something useful like compose an opera.

We are supposed to be one, but we are not acting as one right now. I do accept the result insofar as it goes (as I've said before) but what I do not accept that it is democratically valid when it shows that less that 37.5% of the UK electorate voted to leave EU.

If no progress is made on this and UK does indeed leave EU, then I am prepared for the long-term adverse consequences, as I hope that you will be as well.

Best,

Alistair

[iansinclair]

Point 1: Yes. It's just not acceptable.

Point 2: The entire political class is culpable: the Tories for relentlessly using immigration as a political football (out of expedience because they know it is a weak spot for Labour), and the Blarite / Harmanite Labour groups for first encouraging it in order to have cheap labour, then trying to make the socio-political consequences go away by shouting 'racist' at anyone who questioned those consequences, irrespective of their reasons for doing so.

Having connived to create a thoroughly poisonous and unresolved situation, the political class offers people a mechanism to appear to resolve it, then act surprised by the outcome.

I don't in truth think Corbyn is that big a part of the problem: all the preconditions which have combined to generate this result predate his rise from backbench obscurity. He may not be that effective a campaigner on it (and indeed his prior record indicates he's really rather Eurosceptic) but I think he's an adjunct to the result, not a cause.

And I agree with you, too, Ronde!  Especially your second paragraph on the political class.  That, however, is not a problem unique to the UK.  One could argue -- I think quite successfully -- that many of the continental States have the same problem, and it surely is -- at least in my view -- the root cause of the idiocy currently prevailing on the west side of the pond as well.

It is one thing, however, to identify the problem -- and I think, reviewing this thread, that most of us would agree on what it is! -- and quite another to figure out what to do about it.  Can anyone suggest a decent pub where the lot of us writing on this thread could get together and figure out what to do?  I'll bet we could.  It would be a fun evening or two, if nothing else, and surely we couldn't do worse than our fearless leaders!

[ahinton]

And I agree with you, too, Ronde!  Especially your second paragraph on the political class.  That, however, is not a problem unique to the UK.  One could argue -- I think quite successfully -- that many of the continental States have the same problem, and it surely is -- at least in my view -- the root cause of the idiocy currently prevailing on the west side of the pond as well.

It is one thing, however, to identify the problem -- and I think, reviewing this thread, that most of us would agree on what it is! -- and quite another to figure out what to do about it.  Can anyone suggest a decent pub where the lot of us writing on this thread could get together and figure out what to do?  I'll bet we could.  It would be a fun evening or two, if nothing else, and surely we couldn't do worse than our fearless leaders!

Figuring out what to do in this admittedlhy parlous situation is not the problem; it's getting Parliament to do it!

Best,

Alistair

[iansinclair]

Figuring out what to do in this admittedlhy parlous situation is not the problem; it's getting Parliament to do it!

Best,

Alistair

right...

[thalbergmad]

The doom merchants are quieter today.

Stock market up to pre Brexit levels, Pound on the way up, several Countries have come forward wanting trade deals,  Corbyn on his way out and Bliar to be savaged in the Chilcot report.

Thalxxxx

[chopinlover01]

My concern is more with the extreme xenophobia and pseudo (if not complete) fascism that's going to come out of the decision, in truth.

[thalbergmad]

My concern is more with the extreme xenophobia and pseudo (if not complete) fascism that's going to come out of the decision, in truth.

It is very limited and concerns a very small minority. One idiot wearing a "get out" t shirt, some pretty horrid graffiti and some verbal assaults, all lapped up by the BBC and the press. The losers love to throw the racist word around and give the impression that England is 1930's Germany.

We are an extremely tolerant people in the main, but in some areas, that tolerance has been stretched to breaking point. Gormless morons like Corbyn do not assist the situation.


Thal

[chopinlover01]

It's an extreme minority as it is today, but this kind of decision, I fear, has granted legitimacy to these groups and has potentially supplied them with a kind of grassroots support that they could use to spread their bigotry much farther than they could otherwise.
Whether or not it's a worthwhile risk to give the middle finger to the establishment is another conversation.

[ronde_des_sylphes]

https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2016/06/29/brexit-version-downfall-take-us-inside-boris-johnsons-bunker/

[iansinclair]

https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2016/06/29/brexit-version-downfall-take-us-inside-boris-johnsons-bunker/

I love it!  Thank you for the link!

[ahinton]

It is very limited and concerns a very small minority. One idiot wearing a "get out" t shirt, some pretty horrid graffiti and some verbal assaults, all lapped up by the BBC and the press. The losers love to throw the racist word around and give the impression that England is 1930's Germany.

We are an extremely tolerant people in the main, but in some areas, that tolerance has been stretched to breaking point. Gormless morons like Corbyn do not assist the situation.

Whilst the hate crimes in the aftermath of the referendum have indeed been appalling, the accusations that Leavers are predominantly racist are clearly rubbish. Yes, there are some racists among Leave supporters but that, as you roghtly say, is very much a minority contingent. Corbyn's problem isn't dishonesty or abrasiveness but ineffectuality, so I don't think that he can reasonably be blamed for failure to stem a rising tide of hate crimes following the referendum

At the moment, however, there are no "winners" or "losers", not least because Parliament now appears ever more confused as to what to do with the situation that the party of government has alone created, largely because of the unexpected nature of the result. If you're going to hold a referendum on something this importnat, the one thing that's vital is to have a detailed plan of campaign in place for either outcome well in advance of the vote; it's all too painfully clear that this is not the case.

The Tories who created this mess are now losing their leader.

The Labour Party is almost in ruins over who should replace its leader who for the time being exacerbates this problem by refusing nevertheless to budge (unlike Cameron, who at least had the decency to offer his own resignation rather than waiting to be pushed).

The Scots who have 58 MPs are trying to leave UK as a consequence of the result (NI and Gib might do likewise).

The other parties have only around 10 MPs between them so what they say and think counts for little.

The result of the vote is by no means reflected in Parliamentary support, in that MPs from all parties with more than one MP broadly favour the side other than that which polled the most votes; in other words, there a far greater gulf between Remain/Leave MPs and Remain/Leave voters, which itself indicates a division between Parliament and people.

Whilst on divisiveness, old have been divided against young, city dwellers against others, Scots against the rest as a consequence of this referendum.

The history behind this mess is as follows.

The Tories called a referendum that was unnecessary and for which there was no evidence of public appetite; do you disagree?

The referendum was called on the grounds of Tory fears of the rise of UKIP and defections to it from UKIP, which is not the premise upon which to hang a referendum about UK's continued EU membership; apart from an increase in the number of votes polled by UKIP in 2015, is there any evidence of the Tories' fears having any foundation?

The campaign was run largely on lies and acrimony.

The terms and conditions were far too lax; no minimum turnout and a 50/50 basis, so the referendum could technically have been won on a 20% turnout by a single fraudulent vote; can the much-vaunted "will of the people" be said to be reflected in and represented by that?

And now no one appears to have a clue what to do, either in UK or EU, although clearly it's up to UK to make the first move.

Public spending cuts and tax rises have been threatened by government and, on this occasion, understandably, since the costs of undoing and reshaping 40+ years of lawmaking, changing everyone's passports, the ultimate demise of the EHIC facility and heaven alone knows what else will all have to be met somehow and only the UK taxpayer will be liable for them; it's not up to anyone else to pay for this and I don't somehow see a Greek-style or UK-bank-style bailout from EU just because they're now fed up to the back teeth with UK and are anxious to get rid of it.

Does all of that sound true to you? If so, does it sound anything like a "win" to you?

Unpopular though a Parliamentary rejection of the result would inevitably be (which is probably why there seems so far to be little appetite for it), this would at least be the simplest and cleanest way to clear up at least some of the current mess and restore some stability; OK, it would leave all the eggs in England on the faces of every MP, but since there are already so many such eggs on so many such MP's faces in any case, I'm not so sure that this would be such a bad thing.

In the sadly unlikely event that Parliament were to exercise its statutory right to do this, it would trigger immense anger and discontent, especially (though not exclusively) among Leavers and there would then be a widespread call for a second referendum. Whilst the first one was unnecessary, such a second one would be very much necessitated by the messy outcome of the first one in order to settle matters once and for all in a wholly democratic way, with much tougher terms and conditions such as the 75%+ turnout and 60%+ majority to validate it. Were it to attract, say, a 77% turnout and a 63% vote in favour of Leave, I would very much regret it but I would accept it without question on the grounds that it would unarguably be conclusive. Even then, however, I'm not sure that Parliament would know what to do next, but at least it would have had a couple of months or so in which to get their heads together and figure that out!

Best,

Alistair

[ahinton]

https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2016/06/29/brexit-version-downfall-take-us-inside-boris-johnsons-bunker/

"Brexmess" is certainly an appropriate description of the current Parliamentary and other disarray.

Best,

Alistair

[thalbergmad]

The Tories called a referendum that was unnecessary and for which there was no evidence of public appetite; do you disagree?

Maybe not amongst lefties, but there certainly was amongst those to the right. Cameron promised it as part of his manifesto and came good on his word which is a rarity amongst politicians.

Thal

[thalbergmad]

In the sadly unlikely event that Parliament were to exercise its statutory right to do this, it would trigger immense anger and discontent, especially (though not exclusively) among Leavers and there would then be a widespread call for a second referendum.

Nothing sad about it at all and also nothing messy about it either. It is all very simple. We had a referendum and more people voted leave than voted remain. END OF.

Cameron, May, Johnson, Juncker, Merkel  and anyone with a brain have already said no to another referendum and that is simply the end of it. Pleasingly, the EU have also told Sturgeon to bugger off as she is currently in denial.

If there is widespread reform in the EU, then perhaps in a few years time it might be in our interests to go to the British people again and ask the question, but I wager that in a few years time, just about everyone else will have left and the EU in its present pathetic state will no longer exist.

Thal

[stevensk]

One good thing is that it will probably become quite cheap for eu citizens to visit and go shopping in England. 

[thalbergmad]

Indeed sir and they are all welcome. As long as they go home afterwards lol.

Thal

[visitor]

for all the talk of the coming  economic apocalypse that the vote caused, again, just i'm just a kid looking in through a little window, there has not been much talk about potential upsides (but i read some, albeit very little and quited by voices from of inconvenienced by the idea that there could be some economic upside in the long run ) .

i mean cutting free of the political stalling (by some EU member nations)  that was hampering some trade deals that would benefit UK frees them up to say hammer out trade deals with India for example, which i hear has a few people and a neat little economy (*wink wink, it's packed and the economy is white hot/crazy growth). I came across chatter that this had been on the table a while but some EU member nation(s) that took issue w India kept stalling/objecting, etc.

also , it is not like like some of the trading alliances and deals that 'go away' w the EU won't be renegotiated directly w/ the UK. Sure let's say a few won't come back (but let's also say a few the UK may have been less than thrilled with due to provisions they had to make at the urging of the EU that didn't necessarily benefit the UK), but that's not to say previously existing ones cannot be re done, and potentially better, but also as mentioned above w/ India , some stuff that was going nowhere due to no UK stuff may actually get some traction as well.
EDIT:  FYI https://www.firstpost.com/world/britain-likely-to-explore-direct-trade-agreements-with-india-post-brexit-2860858.html
on a smaller scale, some of the companies that recently struggled with some sales due to cooling of some global markets would be expected to see an uptick on a temporarily lower pound valuation. in the long run maybe not something to cheer for , but for the person who's job is directly impacted by company X's goods sold to Y consumer, it's not that bad (heck I read China artificially does this by devaluing the yuan against some currencies in order to make their goods more affordable over sees, hence attracting manufacturing or increasing Chinese company/goods exports).

[ahinton]

Maybe not amongst lefties, but there certainly was amongst those to the right. Cameron promised it as part of his manifesto and came good on his word which is a rarity amongst politicians.

But I ask again - where was the evidence of general public clamouring for a referendum? There's certainoly evidence of Tory fear of UKIP, for all that it was unfounded. Yes, Cameron honoured his manifesto pledge, for which he deserves due credit, but he didn't have to include that pledge in the first place. Even his sidekick Osborne was against the idea but was voted down on it.

Best,

Alistair

[ahinton]

Nothing sad about it at all and also nothing messy about it either. It is all very simple. We had a referendum and more people voted leave than voted remain. END OF.

Cameron, May, Johnson, Juncker, Merkel  and anyone with a brain have already said no to another referendum and that is simply the end of it. Pleasingly, the EU have also told Sturgeon to bugger off as she is currently in denial.

If there is widespread reform in the EU, then perhaps in a few years time it might be in our interests to go to the British people again and ask the question, but I wager that in a few years time, just about everyone else will have left and the EU in its present pathetic state will no longer exist.

Nothing messy about the current state of affairs? You must be almost alone in viewing it that way!

I fear that it may will never be "END OF". Predictions that divorce proceesings might exceed five years do not seem unreasonable; the amount of work requiring to be done will be colossal and incredibly complex and there's no certainty that UK has even enough people capable of doing it.

It is by no means certain yet that Scotland (or NI or Gib) won't be able to join EU as a member state in its own right; it's far too early to tell (as are most other things in this sackful of disarray) but they can all go independent if they so choose. EU would be unable to stop NI retaining its EU membership in any case if it merges with Ireland which is a member state.

Of "Cameron, May, Johnson, Juncker (and) Merkel", Cameron has resigned, Johnson's been stabbed in the back and droppted out of the UK Prime Ministerial race, May might not replace Cameron and the other two are not UK politicians; only the UK Parliament can decide (a) whether or not to hold another referendum, (b) whether or not to put two fingers up to the result of the first one and (c) whether or when to invoke Article 50; no one in Brussels, Germany or anythwew else within EU can do that.

So almost everything remains very far from cut and dried.

Best,

Alistair

[stevensk]

Indeed sir and they are all welcome. As long as they go home afterwards lol.

Thal

..oh, I just saw the opportunity to buy an english castle thanks brexit. Playing golf and chopin, shooting pheasants and servants.

[thalbergmad]

But I ask again - where was the evidence of general public clamouring for a referendum?

Depends on your political persuasion, which parties you follow and which newspapers you read. Sounds like you missed it, but i didn't.

Secondly, it was of sufficient importance to draw the highest turnout in a vote for 24 years, so it sounds like the public wanted to express an opinion.

I would predict that there will not be another referendum for at least 5 years and only if the EU dramatically reforms so it is a viable proposition for the British people. Personally, i think it could well implode before then.

Thal

[chopinlover01]

After reading more and watching the aftermath, I've realized that, economically speaking, it's probably best for BREXIT to occur. I saw one report which stated that, had Britain remained, it would've been worse in 10 years than it was initially; and without the quick bounceback that we had.
That said, the rise of the fringe xenophobic groups is what worries me, as I've said before.

[iansinclair]

After reading more and watching the aftermath, I've realized that, economically speaking, it's probably best for BREXIT to occur. I saw one report which stated that, had Britain remained, it would've been worse in 10 years than it was initially; and without the quick bounceback that we had.
That said, the rise of the fringe xenophobic groups is what worries me, as I've said before.

I have a nasty feeling that they would rise/have risen anyway.  Xenophobia is a very very deeply ingrained human tendency (it is instructive to consider how many languages exist where the word for the native speakers actually translates to "human" and that for others to "less than human"!).

I was -- and am -- somewhat ambivalent about Brexit, but there are aspects of the directions which I see the EU taking which worry me deeply.  The thought that somehow the nations of Europe -- or the world -- can integrate more and more fully is very attractive.  Unhappily, I see nothing in history nor in the present state of affairs which suggests to me that it is more than wishful thinking.  In a very real sense, this relates to xenophobia, but on a tribal or national scale.  It may be possible for various tribes or nations to agree to not bash each other about physically -- although even that is slightly doubtful -- but to expect various groups of people to behave the same way?  And to attempt to force them to, by top-down regulation and legislation?  Maybe not so much, eh?

[ahinton]

Depends on your political persuasion, which parties you follow and which newspapers you read. Sounds like you missed it, but i didn't.

It doesn't depend on th first two at all or even on the last unless you also close eyes and ears to what's going on outside any newspaper that seeks to skate over this; moreover, you still don't say where you find this overwhelming evidence that the public wanted this referendum. Yes, the turnout was refreshingly high (although not really high enough to seal something as important as this), but "overwhelming evidence that the public wanted this referendum" - had it existed - would by definition have to be overwhelming evidence that it wanted out (otherwise there'd hve been no need to have it), yet the result was very close indeed. In other words, it would have been reasonable to assume that if most people wanted a referendum they did so because they deplored the status quo and wanted out but, in the event, less than 37.5% of the electorate voted that way and almost 35% vote the other way, demonstrating that neither side represented the much-vaunted "will of the people".

I would predict that there will not be another referendum for at least 5 years and only if the EU dramatically reforms so it is a viable proposition for the British people. Personally, i think it could well implode before then.[/quote]
I would predict nothing, given the turmoil of the past week. "A week is a long time in politics", as the cliché goes, but I cannot recall a longer one than the past seven days. Whether a "dramatically reformed" EU would be a "viable proposition" for UK is irrelevant, because once UK's out, it stays out - there's no going back (despite what the LibDem leader would try to have people believe).

The sheer amount of extra taxpayers' money required to do all that's necessary to effect Brexit will be ever harder to find if UK based companies start leaving the sinking ship like so many Labour MPs have done in their support of Corbyn; attracting new ones will also become far harder, since inviting them to come here to rearrange the deckchairs on the Titanic will hardly be viewed as a welcoming proposition. What that will do for the economy is at least as damaging as what it will do for the depletion of Treasury coffers and what it has already sparked off in the Conservative Party and even more so in the Labour Party.

Best,

Alistair

[thalbergmad]

Thankfully, many do not share your doom. The FTSE is up, nobody has deserted and in fact many Countries have come forward wanting trade deals.

If you wish to remain a miserable old git, then that is your own affair, but I remain extremely positive for the long term good of this great Country whilst expecting some inevitable hiccups along the way.

The chance of another female Prime Minister is extremely positive and I recall the glory days of the Thatcher government.

Bollox

Thal

[ahinton]

Thankfully, many do not share your doom.

Doom isn't the correct word, actually, but if Mark Carney shares something similar then I would take notice.

The FTSE is up, nobody has deserted and in fact many Countries have come forward wanting trade deals.

Which ones, where and with whom? Presumably not HSBC, one of the largest clearing banks in Europe, which is preparing to relocate much of its UK operations to Paris or Vodafone which is waiting to see what happens but at the same time considering a similar move. If that kind of thing begins to occur on a large scale, less money will come into the Treasury coffers just when it's most needed to fiund the immense additiona burden of all the work that will be required if Brexit's to proceed; the fundamental overhaul of the law and the judicial system over the past 40+ years will alone be a colossal task.

Yes, FTSE's made a reasonable recovery so far but most financial pundits do not appear to expect this to last - and there's nothing more likely to have the very opposite effect than continuing uncertainty and instability, both of which the events of a week ago have heaped upon us in unimaginable quantities. But what's happened to the pound? It's now falling towards €1.19 and is trading not much above US$1.32, no doubt due at least in part to Mr Carney's announcements of likely imminent falls in UK interest rates as a measure to try to steady the situation but, even if such moves might have such an effect temporarily, he has very little legroom as it's been a mere 0.5% for years already and I imagine that a run on UK banks would be an immediate consequence of the interest rate dropping below zero.

The chance of another female Prime Minister is extremely positive and I recall the glory days of the Thatcher government.

Bollox

Yes, they were, for the most part. She did begin by being a committed European although that attitude began to evaporate once she assumed Prime Ministerial office.

I couldn't care less what gender the new Prime Minister will be; my sole concern at the outset is that he/she is prepared to do the right thing in the interests of both UK and EU, although there's no sense right now that any of the five candidates will have that amount of guts.

I did try to persade my own MP to throw his hat into that ring but he wasn't prepared to do so; I think that he would have done at least as good a job of fulfilling that rôle as anyone and better than most. Curiously, though, he expressed the view that whoever replaced Mr Cameron should be a Brexiter and well known whereas, in fact, only three of the five candidates supported Brexit and only two of them are widely known.

I am deeply concerned about what I believe to be a most terrible mistake on a number of counts which I will not repeat here.

As to "desertion", should Scotland become independent of UK, I would at least consider whether I might be permitted to apply for dual Scottish and UK citizenship so that I could remain an EU citizen (although what kind of poassport I could have were such possible I have no idea - but then I doubt that anyone else does at this stage either). Should Northern Ireland quit UK and become part of the Republic, its citizens wouldn't have to do any such thing because they would automatically become EU citizens.

I am happy for you with your optimism, especially as it's a commodity in very short supply right now among both Remainers and Leavers; if the next (or even the outgoing) Prime Minister does the only decent and sensible thing, I will be better able to develop some myself, but at present this seems most unlikely - largely, I imagine, because it would be such an egg-on-face move.

Best,

Alistair

[thalbergmad]

I am deeply concerned about what I believe to be a most terrible mistake on a number of counts which I will not repeat here.

I for one am grateful for that, as over the last week, you have had more repeats than a Schubert Sonata.

Thal

[visitor]

...more repeats than a Schubert Sonata.

Thal

.

[mjames]

I for one am grateful for that, as over the last week, you have had more repeats than a Schubert Sonata.

Thal

LOL.

[ahinton]

I for one am grateful for that, as over the last week, you have had more repeats than a Schubert Sonata.

I'm totally with you about repeats in Schubert sonatas - and indeed in others of his works; you have only to look at what immediately follows the exposition in the first movement of what is otherwise one of his best works, his second piano trio, which comprises two whole pages, then a repeat thereof in a different key, followed by what commences as a second repeat in another!

That said, if I have repeated certain issue in this thread on occasion is is at least in part because you seem unable to grasp them, mon vieux!

Anyway, I'm sure that you've had more repeats than I during the same period, given the frequency with which you consume beery substances and the fact that I never do!

Best,

Alistair

[thalbergmad]

That said, if I have repeated certain issue in this thread on occasion is is at least in part because you seem unable to grasp them, mon vieux!

I have grasped and accepted the result. You seem to be struggling.

Bollox

Thal

[ahinton]

I have grasped and accepted the result. You seem to be struggling.

Things are not always what the "seem". There are no "struggles" whatsoever.

At the risk of yet further repetition (albeit only in direct response to you on this occasion), I recognise the result (obviously) but have given a raft of reasons why I do not and cannot accept it in principle, all based on the facts that neither
(a) the premise of the referendum, nor
(b) the Tory party's motivation in launching it, nor
(c) its woefully lax terms and conditions, nor
(d) the deceitful and acrimonious manner of the referendum's conduct, nor
(e) the tiny margin in its result, nor
(f) the fact that fewer than 37.5% of the UK electorate voted in favour of UK leaving EU, nor
(g) the fact of its having given rise to the post-referendum situation in which the Prime Minister has done the honourable thing and resigned, the Labour Party's been thrown into utter disarray and, perhaps above all, Parliament seems clueless as to what to do next because no plans for a Brexit had been prepared in advance of the referendum
can credibly add up to an honest, well-handled and, above all, democratic set of procedures.

That very absence of proper democractic intent, conduct and outcome is all that determines my refusal to accept in principle the unacceptable; whilst the result itself is indeed disappointing to me, my reservations about the entire exercise would be precisely the same had the outcome been a margin of 3.8% in favour of Remain.

Bollox

The entire shameful business has indeed been just that.

You've not merely persuaded youself to "accept" the result; you LIKE the result! - and it seems to matter to yo more than any of the negative issues surrounding the exercise that gave rise to it or even the confusion brought about by - and the woeful Parliamentary unpreparedness for - the outcome. What might you have made of it all, however, had the outcome been a margin of 3.8% in favour of Remain?

In the meantime, as nothing constructive seems still to be happening fast, I note that BoJo has lost his mojo (or rather had it effectively taken away from him) and that his sudden quitting of the Gadarene race for UK Prime Ministerial office has been described in a newspaper as his "Brexecution", although a book publisher might have described it as his having been "Remaindered"...

Best,

Alistair