I was convinced of the inevitability of a referendum. It had been talked about for years, and whilst not certain (nothing is), it certainly would have been something I would have considered if I were a Scot voting on independence.
YOU might have been "convinced" - so might others - but merely being a single member of the UK electroate who was "convinced" of this is a far cry from asserting that the majority of Scots were "convinced" of it.
What would have been the source of such conviction in the first place if
(a) it was not on the cards at the time of the first Scottish independence referendum and
(b) when the next UK General Election came around the year after that referendum had taken place, only one party - and one that was only in coalition at the time - was to promise an UK/EU in/out one in its election manifesto so, had it not won that election outright (which it was widely expected not to do), that would have been the end of that for the referendum, whatever some Scots might have thought themselves to be "convinced" of the previous year.
Even all of that, though, is not really the point. We all know that most people, whether they supported Remain or Leave, expected the opinion poll result to favour Remain; the government of the day which had promised it thought so as well and accordingly spent almost £10m of taxpayers' funds promoting it. How, therefore, could Scots have been "convinced" a year in advance that
(a) the Tories (but no one else) would promise an UK/EU in/out referendum in its election manifesto the following year (especially given the sheer paucity of Tories in Scotland)
(b) the Tories would win that election with an outright majority, thereby enabling them to fulfil their promise and
(c) Leave would win, albeit by a very small margin and not in Scotland itself, Northern Ireland or Gibraltar?
Many Scots are intelligent people but all of that would have been asking far too much of their perceptive and predictive powers!
If you were not certain, that is your own problem.
Far from being "my problem" it's not a problem at all; as I stated, no one could possibly have foreseen all of the above.
Do you believe there to be a palpable desire for a second Scottish independence referendum for any reason
other than the possible threat of Brexit? I don't, but that's only my opinion - maybe you have evidence to justify thinking differently about this, in which case please present it.
Best,
Alistair